When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?
|US monthly jobs report overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of keenly watched US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 1330GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 177K new jobs during the month of December as compared to the previous month's dismal reading of 155K.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% but the key focus will be on wage growth data, which have gained more traction in the recent past. Average hourly earnings are foreseen to post another solid growth of 0.3% m/m, with the yearly rate ticking lower to 3.0%.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction to the headline NFP print, in case of a relative deviation of -1.23 or +0.98, is likely to be in the range of 54-52 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 105-90 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.
How could the data affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the key release, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst provides important technical levels to watch for trading the major: “1.1410 capped the pair in recent hours, and it is followed closely by the 50-SMA. 1.1440 capped the pair several times during December. 1.1480 was a swing high in the dying days of the year. 1.1500 was the peak in November.”
“Some support awaits at 1.1380 that separated ranges on Thursday and converges with the 200 SMA. 1.1340 was a swing low in late December. The 1.1310 level was the low point in the flash crash and also served as support in early December. 1.1270 and 1.1215 are next,” he added further.
Key Notes
• Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Is the equity gloom on the US economy warranted?
• US NFP Preview: 6 Major Banks expectations from December payrolls report
• EUR/USD challenges 1.1400 on EMU CPI, now looks to US NFP, Powell
About the US monthly jobs report
The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market asses them all.
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