When is the US GDP report and how could it affect EUR/USD?
|US Q1 GDP Overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of advance (first estimate) of the US Q1 GDP growth figures, scheduled to be published at 12:30 GMT. The US economy is anticipated to have expanded at an annualized pace of 2.1% during the first quarter of 2019, from 2.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter and marking a further deceleration.
Meanwhile, Joseph Trevisani - Senior Analyst at FXStreet writes, “the late arriving retail sales figures, the much better business capital spending, the rebound in consumer optimism and the buoyant labor market background all point to an improvement in the general economy in the just-completed quarter. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model agrees to post a 2.7% pace.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction on the pair, in case of a deviation between -0.88 to +0.68, is likely to be in the range of 27-28 pips in the first 15-minutes and could extend to 72-83 pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the important release, Yohay Elam, Analyst at FXStreet provides important technical levels to trade the major: “Euro/dollar is battling 1.1140 which was the initial low after the downfall. The new 2019 trough of 1.1118 is the next line to watch. Further down, we are back to levels last seen in 2017: 1.1025 and 1.0900.”
“1.1176 was the previous low of the year, set back in March. 1.1205 was a swing low earlier in April, now serving as resistance. 1.1230 separated ranges earlier this week, and 1.1265 capped EUR/USD earlier,” he added further.
Key Notes
• US First Quarter GDP Preview: Reasons to be cheerful
• US Q1 GDP Preview: Banks expecting growth to rebound strongly
• EUR/USD: Focus on US GDP, US dollar vulnerable to sell the fact trade
About the US GDP
The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.
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