When is the Canadian jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?
|Canadian employment details overview
Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly jobs report for November later this Friday at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus estimates, the number of employed people is expected to have risen by 10K during the reported month as compared to -1.8K fall recorded in the previous month, Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.5%.
Conversely, analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canadian labour market to give back 10k jobs in November (market: +10k) on an unwind of election-related hiring that bolstered the October print. “This would represent the second instance of consecutive declines in 2019, following job losses in June/July, which could feed speculation about a broader erosion in labour market conditions. A 10k decline in total employment should push the unemployment rate higher to 5.6% (market: 5.5%) although favourable base-effects should see wage growth hold at 4.4% y/y.”
How could the data affect USD/CAD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst offered his take on the possible market reaction to the employment details: “If Canada gained more jobs than expected and wage growth remains robust, USD/CAD may plunge. That is the base-case scenario. An increase of over 20,000 jobs would count as a beat, and wage growth exceeding 4% is more than satisfactory.”
“In the unlikely case that Canada's figures are in line with projections, Dollar/CAD may still retreat as the chances for a downbeat US jobs report are high. If Canada posts another month of job losses and the US NFP surprises to the upside, the currency pair has room to rise,” Yohay added further.
Key Notes
• Canadian jobs preview: Three reasons why USD/CAD may extend its falls
• USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction ahead of US/Canadian jobs report
• USD/CAD: The stage is set for the Bear
About the Employment Change
The employment Change released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.
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