When is the Canadian jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?
|Canadian employment details overview
Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly jobs report for October later this Friday at 13:30 GMT. According to consensus estimates, the number of employed people is expected to have risen by 15.9K during the reported month as compared to 53.7K rise in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.5%.
Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canadian economy to add 25k jobs in October, well above market expectations. “Temporary federal election hiring will provide a significant tailwind to the headline print; in the previous three election cycles, public administration employment rose by 32k on average during the month of the vote. This will push the unemployment rate back to its cycle low of 5.4%, while muted base-effects should see wage growth firm to 4.4% (market: 5.5%, 4.2%).”
How could the data affect USD/CAD?
Ahead of the key release, the USD/CAD pair continued with its struggle to decisively break through the 100-day SMA barrier. A surprisingly positive reading will be enough to provide a goodish lift to the Canadian Dollar and prompt some aggressive technical selling around the major, which might accelerate the fall back towards challenging weekly lows, around the 1.3115 region.
Conversely, a weaker reading should assist the pair to surpass the 1.3200 handle and test its next major hurdle near the 1.3220-25 region. Some follow-through buying might continue fueling the momentum further towards the 1.3280 region en-route the 1.3300 round-figure mark.
Key Notes
• Canada Employment Preview: The Bank of Canada’s patience is rewarded
• USD/CAD technical analysis: The pair is testing the psychological 1.32 resistance again
• USD/CAD bulls eyeing a move beyond 100-DMA, focus on Canadian jobs report
About the Employment Change
The employment Change released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.
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