When is the Canadian GDP report and how could it affect USD/CAD?
|Canadian GDP overview
Friday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for March, scheduled to be published at 12:30 GMT. Statistics Canada will also release the annualized quarterly growth rate, making this event more significant than the ones including only monthly data. Having contracted in the previous month, consensus estimates now point to a modest expansion of 0.3% during the reported month and 0.7% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2019.
As Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst explains: "The oil sector suffered from lower prices and reduced production and the housing sector also stalled early in the year. Both sectors are picking up at the moment – but that was not the case in the first three months of the year."
Deviation impact on USD/CAD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction on the pair, in case of a deviation between -0.84 to +0.56, is likely to be around 25-29 pips during the first 15-minutes and could get extended to 51-55 pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect USD/CAD?
Ahead of the key release, Yohay Elam offers important technical levels to watch for: "The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that USD/CAD faces only weak resistance at 1.3597 where the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2 and the Fibonacci 161.8% one-week converge. The upside target is 1.3654 where we see the convergence of the Pivot Point one-month Resistance 2 and the PP one-week R3."
"Looking down, USD/CAD is backed by massive support. A dense cluster of lines awaits at 1.3507. It includes the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the previous weekly high, the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, and the Bollinger Band 15min-Lower. Further down, another busy juncture awaits it at 1.3464 and it includes the Bollinger Band one-day-Middle, the Simple Moving Average 100-4h, the SMA 200-1h, the SMA 10-1d, and the SMA 50-4h," he added further.
Key Notes
• Canadian GDP Preview: OK GDP may be enough to end CAD's downward spiral
• Canada GDP Preview: Banks expecting Q1 GDP to disappoint
• USD/CAD clings to gains near multi-month tops
About the Canada GDP
The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.
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