When is Australian Trade Balance and how could it affect AUD/USD?
|Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT, markets will see the preliminary reading of Australia’s October month Trade Balance numbers. Although tussles between Australia and China seem to have weighed on the Aussie trade numbers off-late, the recent recovery in the RBA’s refrain from negative rates may gain additional support on today’s data, if posting upbeat outcomes.
That said, the headline Trade Balance rose to 5630M in September while details marked Imports and Exports as having -5.9% and +3.9% respective figures for the stated month.
The trade numbers from an export-oriented economy becomes also important as it can give RBA’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle to keep his cautious optimism while speaking around 02:30 GMT.
How could they affect AUD/USD?
Considering the AUD/USD pair’s multiple failures to refresh the monthly top on the daily closing basis, today’s Aussie Trade Balance data becomes important for the sellers ahead of the RBA’s Debelle’s speech. Should the headline figures print pessimistic figures, chatters concerning the US-led push to form a Western trade group to combat the China-backed trade alliance will gain momentum. The same could also offer RBA policymakers to rethink over their bullish bias. However, any positive surprise will be welcomed as risk-tone remains mildly upbeat amid vaccine hopes.
Technically, AUD/USD attempts to regain 0.7300 while extending its bounce off 0.7264 during the early Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair forms a short-term ascending triangle formation that currently restricts its moves between 0.7270 and 0.7340. Also acting as extra filters to the moves is the mid-September high of 0.7346 and 100-bar SMA near 0.7340. Considering the latest bearish signals from the MACD, coupled with repeated failures to provide a daily closing beyond the monthly high of 0.7340, bulls should wait for a clear break above 0.7346.
Keynotes
AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls still reluctant to push aussie higher
AUD/USD wavers below 0.7300 ahead of Aussie Trade Balance
About Australian Trade Balance
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
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