USD/MXN dips amidst US economy slowdown; MXN threatens new year-to-date lows

• USD/MXN falls close to 0.50% amid declining US bond yields, on US recession fears.
• Despite an unchanged interest rate from the Mexican central bank, the Mexican Peso teeters towards year-to-date lows.
• USD/MXN is downward biased, potentially testing the current YTD low and the 2016 yearly low, suggesting bearish market sentiment.

USD/MXN drops close to 0.50% as the week begins, undermined by falling US bond yields, courtesy of mixed data, even though last week’s job report in the United States (US) cemented the case for one more rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Mexican Peso (MXN) threatens to fall toward new year-to-date (YTD) lows, albeit the central bank of Mexico held rates unchanged at its last meeting. The USD/MXN is trading at 17.4629 after hitting a high of 17.5971.

USD/MX pair weakens as US bond yields fall, concerns over potential US recession mount as further rate hikes by the Fed hinted

Wall Street is trading with losses as market sentiment deteriorated, as data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that service business activity remains in expansionary territory but slowing down. That, alongside a contractionary figure in manufacturing, sparked fears of an upcoming recession in the United States. Another piece of the puzzle added to recessionary anxiety is that Factory Orders released by the US Census Bureau weakened from 0.6% in April to 0.4% in the last month, excluding transportation, improved from a -0.7% drop to -0.2% in March.

Consequently, the greenback remains under pressure, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, a basket of six currencies that measures the performance of the USD, drops 0.04%, down at 103.995, weighed by falling US bond yields.

Hence, the USD/MXN has fallen from around the 17.59s area, even though that consumer confidence in Mexico was 44.4 in May. Contrarily, gross fixed income climbed 0.5% in March from February, as revealed by the Instituto National de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) on Monday.

USD/MXN Price Analysis: Technical outlook

USD/MXN remains downward biased, though consolidated at around the 17.60/17.40 figure, during the last six trading days, unable to reclaim the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 17.6896, which could exacerbate a rally toward the 50-day EMA at 17.8995, ahead of re-testing the 18.00 handle. USD/MXN path of least resistance is downward and might test the current YTD low of 17.4238. A breach of the latter will expose the 2016 yearly low of 17.0509 before diving to 17.0000.