USD/JPY: Scalpers delight, but for how long?
|- USD/JPY is consolidating in a scalpers paradise today as FX pairs gyrate across the sessions.
- Investors brace themselves for high-level Sino/US trade talks, the Fed and today's Brexit vote on PM May's plan B.
- USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.40, up from the 109.12 low and below the 109.54 high.
USD/JPY has been moving sideways in a range of around 40 pips today, offering buyers and sellers enough assurances to continue scalping the ebbs and flows between on roughly even ratios (1:1) since the start of last week, between sideways channel resistance of 110 and the supporting 21-D SMA support, down at 108.85 today.
We had entered a Fed blackout ahead of this week's Fed which has left the market to make up its own mind about Fed policy and the outlook. The sentiment is that the Fed is on hold, which has taken the dollar down a peg or two. The yen, on the other hand, came back into play on risk off sentiment surrounding China's slowdown, contagion risks associated with the Chinese economic performance and global quality prices pressured to the downside.
"We see risk of falling investor confidence during the course of the year. This would boost demand for safe-haven assets. Consequently, we expect USD/JPY to end the year closer to the 105 area,"
analysts at Rabobank argued.
Catalysts to spark the market's elastic potential energy
However, the tables could be on the verge of turning, and a market will not stay compressed for too long before elastic potential energy is sparked by a catalyst, and we have plenty of those on our calendars this week:
Starting with Brexit read here:
Sino/US trade talks here:
- US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Everything is on the table regarding tariffs, China trade
- Sources: Big divides remain as US-China trade talks resume - WSJ
Fed:
USD/JPY levels
"The intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and the daily Elliott wave count continues to indicate failure ahead of 110.30. We would then allow slippage back towards 107.75/50 band and possibly the 104.10 spike low,"
analysts at Commerzbank argued.
USD/JPY
Overview:
Today Last Price: 109.38
Today Daily change: 0.00 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.00%
Today Daily Open: 109.38
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 108.97
Daily SMA50: 111.08
Daily SMA100: 111.96
Daily SMA200: 111.26
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 109.59
Previous Daily Low: 109.16
Previous Weekly High: 110
Previous Weekly Low: 109.14
Previous Monthly High: 113.83
Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.32
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.43
Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.16
Daily Pivot Point S2: 108.95
Daily Pivot Point S3: 108.73
Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.59
Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.8
Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.02
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