USD/JPY climbs and probes the neckline of a double-bottom amid a risk-off market mood
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- Broad US dollar strength lifts the USD/JPY, up 0.10%.
- A risk-off market mood keeps the safe-haven US dollar bid even versus the yen.
- USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Upward biased, as shown by the DMAs under the exchange rate, alongside a double-bottom chart pattern.
USD/JPY advances, recovering from Monday and Tuesday’s losses, and tests the neckline of the “double-bottom” pattern spotted on the daily chart in the mid-North American session. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.64.
Market sentiment worsened throughout the day. The Asian session carried on Wednesday’s Wall Street close, but conditions shifted since the European session despite ongoing Ukraine-Russia talks in Belarus. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said that talks with Ukraine in Belarus could yield results, while Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Putin and French President Macron held discussions in a phone call. A French official reported that Russia’s Putin told Macron that if Ukraine neutralization and disarmament can’t be reached diplomatically, he would extend Russia’s “special military operations.”
US Treasury yield fall, led by the US 10-year benchmark note, down 33 basis points sitting at 1.83%, while the greenback marches firmly, with the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value vs a basket of six rivals, up some 0.51%, at 97.848.
On Thursday, the US economic docket unveiled the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on February 26, which came at 215K, lower than the 225K estimated, while US Markit Services PMI for February came at 56.5, falling short a tenth than estimations. Late in the session, the US ISM Services Index for the same period declined to 56.5, worse than estimations, while Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders fulfilled expectations.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/JPY is upward biased, as depicted by two factors. Firstly, the daily moving averages (DMAs) reside below the spot price, and second, a double-bottom chart pattern seems to be shaping. That said, the USD/JPY first resistance level would be the neckline around 115.78. Breach of the latter would expose 116.00, followed by the YTD high at 116.35, and the double-bottoms target at 117.48.
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