USD/INR holds to US-India trade uncertainty gains ahead of India's inflation data
|- The Indian Rupee falls to near 90.86 against the US Dollar amid uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade deal.
- So far, FIIs have remained net sellers on all trading days of December.
- Investors await India’s retail CPI and the US NFP data for November.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/INR pair hitting fresh all-time highs at 90.86. The Indian currency continues to underperform its peers as investors remain anxious over whether the United States (US) and India will reach a trade deal in the near term.
No major outcome has come out of the two-day meeting between Deputy US Trade Representative Rick Switzer and his team, and top negotiators from India, keeping uncertainty over the US-India trade deal intact.
A slight optimism built on the US-India trade pact outlook on Wednesday when US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated, while testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee, that the latest offer by New Delhi is the "best ever" the US has seen, while keeping the claim that India is a “tough nut to crack”. However, sentiment over the Indian Rupee is expected to remain bogged down unless a deal is announced.
On comments by US Trade Representative Greer, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated on Thursday that Washington should sign the bilateral deal if it is very happy with the offer. "His happiness is very much welcome. And, I do believe that if they are very happy, they should be signing on the dotted lines,” Goyal said, PTI reported.
It seems that the Indian equity market will continue to witness outflows from overseas investors unless a trade deal between the US and India is announced. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers so far in all trading days of December, and have offloaded stake worth Rs. 18,491.29 crore.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies this week. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.77% | -0.39% | 0.28% | -0.47% | -0.46% | 0.47% | -1.11% | |
| EUR | 0.77% | 0.42% | 1.10% | 0.34% | 0.37% | 1.44% | -0.30% | |
| GBP | 0.39% | -0.42% | 0.71% | -0.08% | -0.05% | 0.85% | -0.71% | |
| JPY | -0.28% | -1.10% | -0.71% | -0.74% | -0.73% | 0.23% | -1.37% | |
| CAD | 0.47% | -0.34% | 0.08% | 0.74% | 0.03% | 0.92% | -0.63% | |
| AUD | 0.46% | -0.37% | 0.05% | 0.73% | -0.03% | 0.90% | -0.66% | |
| INR | -0.47% | -1.44% | -0.85% | -0.23% | -0.92% | -0.90% | -1.74% | |
| CHF | 1.11% | 0.30% | 0.71% | 1.37% | 0.63% | 0.66% | 1.74% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The Fed signals one interest rate cut in 2026
- The Indian Rupee underperforms the US Dollar even as the latter is expected to close in red for the third straight week. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to regain ground after posting a fresh seven-week low of 98.13 on Thursday.
- The US Dollar has been under pressure since Wednesday when the Federal Reserve (Fed) ruled out the possibility of a pause in the ongoing monetary-easing campaign despite inflationary pressures remaining well above the 2% target.
- The Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers collectively see the Federal Fund Rate heading to 3.4% by the end of 2026, signaling that there will be one interest rate cut next year. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the bar of another interest rate cut is very high, and we are close to the upper range of neutrality, a level that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy.
- Before the monetary policy announcement, market participants anticipated the Fed to signal that it is done with trimming interest rates, following a 25-basis-point (bps) reduction to 3.50%-3.75%.
- Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh cues on the interest rate outlook. The impact of the official employment data will be significant on market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, as the central bank has reduced borrowing rates in its last three meetings due to downside labor market risks.
- In Friday’s session, the USD/INR pair will be influenced by India’s retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be published at 10:30 GMT. India’s retail inflation is expected to have grown by 0.7% on an annualized basis, faster than 0.25% in October.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more upside towards 92.00
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 90.6885. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 89.8183 rises and stays beneath the spot price, keeping the short-term uptrend intact and supporting dip-buying interest.
Price action remains above the moving average, suggesting the advance is being tracked by trend followers.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.27 edges toward overbought, confirming firm bullish momentum while hinting at risk of fatigue on further gains.
The bias stays firm as long as USD/INR holds above the rising 20-day EMA, with pullbacks expected to be absorbed near the average. A decisive break above the fresh all-time high of 90.86 could lead to further advancement towards 92.00.
RSI hovering just below 70 signals strong but stretched momentum; a push above 70 could trigger consolidation, while sustained readings below that threshold would maintain an orderly grind higher. A daily close back under the 20-day EMA would soften the tone and open room for a deeper retracement towards the December 1 low at 89.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
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