US Elections: Senate polls to become more significant unless there is an earth-shattering swing towards Trump
|President Trump is trailing Biden by a wide margin but skeptics point to 2016. Nonetheless, there are seven reasons why this time is different, according to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam. The Senate race is much closer and could be more consequential for markets.
More:
-
US Elections: President Trump victory with a split Congress, the most positive outcome for financial markets – HSBC
-
US Elections: Blue Wave to extend USD decline and equities rally – Westpac
Key quotes
“Bigger gap: According to the RealClearPolitics, former Vice-President Joe Biden leads the president by 9% nationally and has consistently had a larger lead than Clinton's. The gap stands at 3.4% as of mid-October.”
“Fewer undecideds: Back in 2016, support for Clinton peaked below 47%. This time, backing for Biden has been above 50% with fewer undecideds. There are fewer people that could break toward Trump.”
“Poll mistakes go both ways: It is easier to compare to 2016, when the president shocked the world with a victory but looking back into history shows that surveys can miss in both directions. Back in 2012, surveys underestimated President Barack Obama by around 4% on the national levels and state polls missed Democratic support as well. Accounting for a 2012-style miss, Biden has an even larger advantage.”
“Pollsters have learned: Firms that survey public opinion need to defend their reputation toward the next elections and to rake in income from commercial firms. They would not want to repeat the exact same mistakes – and may even overcompensate and underestimate a potential Biden landslide.”
“Gap between states and national vote smaller this time: Not even the most ardent Trump backers believe he can win the popular vote, but build their hopes on an electoral college victory.”
“No shy Trump voters: Trump backers are not shy, there are just small quantities of them. The base is too small and Trump has failed to pivot to the center and enlarge his support.”
“October surprise? Trump and Biden are set to meet in the second and final debate on October 22, and that is probably the president's best chance to win back support. Can something like the Comey letter happen again? Anything is possible, but so far, nothing has stuck to Biden.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.