US CPI will be in focus today – TDS
|Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of Thursday's important US macro data – the latest consumer inflation figures for January.
Key quotes:
“The Jan CPI report will lead the data calendar in the US on Thursday. Headline CPI was probably held down by a decline in gasoline prices; our 0.1% forecast is below the 0.2% consensus. Even so, the 12-month change probably rose 0.1 points to 2.4%. In contrast, we expect the 12-month change in core prices to fall 0.1 points to 2.2%, even with a 0.2% m/m rise, although it is a close call between 2.2% and 2.3%. Net net, the trend still looks tame.”
“Global rates see a strong rally as markets continue to sift through the potential fallout from COVID-19. If CPI overshoots, markets are likely to look past the print for the most part as the Fed has indicated they are comfortable letting CPI run on the hotter side — but a downside surprise could trigger a decent rally in fixed income markets.”
“Separately, we expect initial jobless claims to print a steady 215k for the week of Feb 8, near the 4-week trend and somewhat above consensus expectations (210k). Also of note, the Shelton and Waller Fed nomination hearings will commence in the Senate at 10am.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.