NZD/USD: RBNZ coming up, Kiwi supported on dollar weakness
|- NZD/USD supported on a weaker greenback, but eyes on RBNZ.
- NZD/USD stuck between familiar range, 0.6860 is key upside target while 0.6720 supports.
NZD/USD made a high of 0.6763 in NY from a low of 0.6722 on Wednesday's trade so far as the antipodeans consolidate in familiar territories. The Aussie was capped though at the cloud base and 50-D SMA while the Kiwi moves higher through the hourly MAs ahead of today's RBNZ.
According to a Bloomberg survey, there are no calls for the RBNZ to change interest rates tonight, and many observers do not even expect a move until well into 2019 considering the recent run of poor economic data and the general concerns over the domestic and global economy's recovery where trade wars have been a thorn in the side of sentiment.
RBNZ outlook
However, analysts at Rabobank explained that "at its last policy meeting in late June, the RBNZ stated that policy was “well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary”, explained that this struck an optimistic tone on global growth which it “expected to support demand for our products and services” but a slightly more cautious outlook on domestic demand.
The analysts explained that the RBNZ stated that “recent weaker GDP outturn implies marginally more spare capacity in the economy than we anticipated." However, the analysts at Rabobank are expecting policymakers to tune up their note of caution at tonight’s policy meeting, which is likely to keep the pressure on the bird while maintaining their bearish outlook on the NZD, looking for a move towards NZD/USD0.66 into year end with downside risk.
NZD/USD levels
Key resistance remains located at 0.6860 but for the near term, 0.6770, 200-hr SMA, 0.6780 100-4hr SMA come first. Should bulls manage a break through recent highs and the top of the channel, there with daily closes, 0.6920 as the June high comes as a key level. The 200-month moving average resistance is at 0.7020. To the downside, 0.6720 opens the 1st July lows of 0.6689 and 0.6616 further down. Further out, 0.6550 then guards a run to the 0.6470s.
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