Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from 50-SMA to pare Fed, China-linked gains
|- Gold price consolidates intraday gains during three-day uptrend.
- Market sentiment remains positive amid hopes of easy Fed rate hikes, more stimulus from China.
- XAU/USD bulls may struggle amid Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) pares intraday gains around $1,753 during the early hours of Thursday morning in Europe. Even so, the precious metal prints a three-day winning streak amid the market’s cautious optimism.
The commodity’s latest pullback could be linked to the consolidation ahead of the European session openings, after witnessing a sluggish Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Also likely to test the XAU/USD bulls are the Covid fears from China.
However, receding fears of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive rate hikes, especially after the previous day’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, keep the gold buyers hopeful. On the same line are the hopes for Chinese government stimulus and a cut to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), as well as hopes of quick recovery from the COVID-19-led grim economic conditions.
Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures join firmer Asia-Pacific shares to print mild gains but the Treasury yields are inactive amid the Thanksgiving celebration in the US. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured towards the monthly low near 105.35, around the weekly low of 105.63 by the press time.
Looking forward, a light calendar and holiday mood in the US could challenge the gold traders but the buyers are likely to keep the reins.
Technical analysis
Although 50-SMA challenges the immediate upside of the Gold price near $1,758, a clear upside break of the one-week-old descending trend line joins bullish MACD signals to keep the buyers hopeful. Also suggesting the XAU/USD’s further advances is the previous day’s U-turn from the 100-SMA.
Hence, the latest pullback could aim for the previous resistance line, around $1,737, and will be less problematic unless the quote stays beyond the 100-SMA level of $1,724.
Following that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the metal’s November 03-15 upside, respectively near $1,700 and $1,680, could challenge the Gold bears.
Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the immediate 50-SMA hurdle surrounding $1,758 could quickly propel the bullion prices toward the monthly high near $1,787.
In a case where the Gold price refreshes monthly top, highs marked in August around $1,808 will be in focus.
Gold price: Four-hour chart
Trend: Bullish
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