GBP/USD trades with mild losses below 1.2800, Fed holds rate steady

• GBP/USD edges lower to 1.2795 after retreating from three-month highs on Thursday. 
• The Fed kept its benchmark overnight borrowing rate targeted in a range of 5.25%-5.50% on Wednesday, as widely expected. 
• The UK GDP flatlined in April, arriving at 0% after expanding 0.4% in March. 

The GBP/USD pair loses some ground near 1.2795 after retracing from three-month highs of 1.2860 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The negative surprise of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report in May weighs on the Greenback, but the hawkish hold by the Federal Reserve (Fed) modestly caps the USD’s downside. 

Inflation in the United States held flat in May, dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower. The CPI inflation figure eased to 3.3% on a yearly basis in May from 3.4% in April, below the market consensus of 3.4%, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.4%, compared to a 3.6% rise in April and the estimation of 3.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged, while the core CPI increased 0.2% in May.

Furthermore, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep its benchmark lending rate in a range of 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh time in a row at its June meeting on Wednesday. The FOMC officials expect just one rate cut this year, down from three in March, according to its most recent economic predictions. The so-called ‘dot-plot’ showed that the median of the FOMC officials revised their forecast of the federal funds rate from 4.6% to 5.1%, towards the end of 2024.

Futures traders are now pricing in a 73% odds of rate cut from the Fed in September, up from 53% before the CPI data released, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Later on Thursday, investors will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, along with the Producer Prices Index (PPI) and the Fed's John Williams speech. 

On the other hand, the UK economic growth stalls in April, according to a flash reading published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 0% in April after growing 0.4% in March, in line with the market consensus. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet on June 20 for the next move of its monetary policy. Investors believe there is little possibility of a rate cut in June and shift their expectations towards August or September.