GBP/USD: Delay in Bank of England rate hike priced-in?
|- GBP/USD has dropped 6.2 percent in the last three-week as May rate hike bets evaporated, courtesy of weak data.
- An oversold cable may recover if BOE portrays the first-quarter slowdown as a temporary lull.
Most economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England (BOE) to vote 7-2 to keep rates unchanged today and expect a rate hike in August.
A month ago, a 25 basis point rate hike in May looked like a done deal. However, the unexpectedly weak first quarter data and Carney's cautious stance poured cold water over the growing odds of a May rate hike.
The British Pound nosedived from 1.4377 to 1.3485 and in the process breached the long-term ascending trendline (sloping upwards from the March 2017 low and April 2017 low). Clearly, the markets have priced-in a delay in the rate hike.
As of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3560 and looks oversold as per the daily relative strength index. Further, the pair has also created back-to-back doji candles on the daily chart, signaling bearish exhaustion.
So, a corrective rally could be in the offing, especially if Carney and Co. refer to the first quarter slowdown as a temporary lull and keep August rate hike on the table.
Post-BOE, the focus would shift to US consumer price index (CPI), scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. An above-forecast reading would put a bid under the US dollar.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook
A close today above the 10-day moving average would add credence to the bearish exhaustion as indicated by the multiple doji candles and could yield consolidation in the short-term. Major resistance is seen at 1.3712 (March 1 low) and 1.3825 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off).
On the downside, a close below 1.3485 (recent low) would signal a continuation of the sell-off. The 5-day MA and the 10-day MA are still trending south, indicating a bearish setup. Support is seen at 1.3462, 38.2% 2017/2018 rally and 1.3301 (Dec. 15 low).
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