Forex Today: Dollar under pressure after US CPI, eyes on Australian employment
|The March Australian Employment is the key report of the Asian session. China will release trade balance data. More US inflation data is coming on Thursday with the Producer Price Index. The US Dollar Index is under pressure and posted on Wednesday the lowest daily close since early February.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 13:
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in March, below the 0.3% increase expected, and the annual rate slowed to 5%, the smallest since May 2021. However, the Core rate edged higher from 5.5% to 5.6% YoY. Despite the persistence in Core inflation, the bond market continues to bet on rate cuts late in 2023 while still seeing some potential for another rate hike at the May FOMC meeting (the last one). The decline in US yields weighs on the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index dropped to 101.50 and posted the lowest daily since February. More US inflation data is due on Thursday with the Producer Price Index. The weekly Jobless Claims report is also due.
EUR/USD jumped to the 1.1000 area but could not break above, while EUR/GBP rose above 0.8800. Expectations of more rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to offer support to the common currency.
GBP/USD gained ground for the second day in a row, and is back near the 1.2500 area, with a bullish outlook. UK GDP data and Industrial Production and Trade Balance are due on Thursday.
USD/JPY ended a positive streak and bottomed at 132.70. It rebounded during the American session above 133.00 but the short-term outlook remains bearish.
AUD/USD peaked at 0.6723 and then pulled back below 0.6700. Australia will release employment data on Thursday; market consensus is for an increase of 20,000 in jobs during March.
The Bank of Canada, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, offering no significant changes in its forward guidance. BoC Governor Macklem said they are not forecasting a major contraction. He will speak again on Thursday at the International Monetary Fund Spring meetings. USD/CAD dropped for the second day in a row, falling below 1.3450, as it continues to move toward April lows.
NZD/USD rose modestly and retook 0.6200 as the Kiwi lags again. AUD/NZD rose above 1.0750, to weekly highs.
Bitcoin peaked above $30,500 after US CPI data but then pulled back, retreating to $29,800. Gold price peaked near $2,030 and then pulled back to $2,000 to end a volatile session around $2,015. Finally, silver broke decisively above $25.00.
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