Fed: Board nominees raise the chance of rate cuts – ABN AMRO
|Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the US President Trump overnight announced two new nominees to the Board of the Federal Reserve overnight – St Louis Fed research director Christopher Waller, and former economic advisor to the president Judy Shelton.
Key Quotes
“Both can be considered doves with regards to the current policy stance, and will likely advocate immediately for rate cuts if confirmed by the Senate. However, this is where the similarities end, and we view the appointment of Mr Waller as significantly more likely than that of Ms Shelton. Mr Waller is a Fed insider who, although having strong views on monetary policy, does not advocate wholesale regime change, and in that regard is a relatively safe choice for the president. Ms Shelton on the other hand has highly unconventional views, arguing that the FOMC should not even be determining short-term interest rates but for this to be left to the market, and she is a known advocate of the gold standard.”
“Previous nominees with similarly unconventional views, such as Marvin Goodfriend and Herman Cain, ultimately pulled out of the confirmation process when it became clear that the Senate would not appoint them. We suspect the chances are high that something similar might happen with Ms Shelton. With that said, even if one or both nominees fail, Mr Trump looks determined to appoint advocates of rate cuts to the Committee, and seemingly with renewed urgency compared with early on in his presidency.”
“A more dovish tilt to the Committee supports our expectation that the Fed will cut three times over the coming quarters, starting at the July meeting with a 25bp cut, and with further cuts in Q4 and Q1.”
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