EURUSD price steadies above 1.0200 with eyes on US Consumer Confidence, Fed

• EURUSD stays inside weekly trading range after a softer start to the key week.
• Bulls and bears jostle as German IFO, US activity/sentiment numbers both came in downbeat.
• Fears of economic slowdown in the bloc probe Euro bulls while pre-Fed anxiety, firmer equities challenge greenback’s upside.
• US CB Consumer Confidence for July will be important to watch for fresh impulse.

EURUSD price remains sidelined at around 1.0220, keeping the one-week-old trading range, as traders await fresh clues after a sluggish start to the key week. That said, the major currency pair trades between 1.0130 and 1.0280 in the last week with eyes on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It’s worth noting that the mildly positive performance of the Wall Street and downbeat economics from the US and Eurozone restricted the quote’s latest moves.

Recently, two US Treasury officials, namely Ben Harris, Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Neil Mehrotra, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics raised hopes for a firmer US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The officials wrote, per Reuters, that gross domestic income (GDI), which measures aggregate income -- wages, business profits, rental and interest income -- continued to rise in the first quarter at a 1.8% annual pace, while GDP fell.

It’s worth noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen talked down fears of the US recession earlier while saying, “A second quarter GDP contraction would not signal recession because of underlying job market strength, demand and other indicators of economic health.”

On the other hand, downbeat prints of the German IFO Sentiment data for July pushed IFO Economist Klaus Wohlrabe to mention, “Germany is on brink of recession.” It should be noted that the German IFO Business Climate Index slumped to 88.6 in July versus market forecasts of 90.5 and the previous monthly print of 92.2.

Not only the German figures but the US data was also downbeat as Chicago Fed National Activity Index reprinted -0.19 in June, versus -0.03 forecast. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for July slumped to the lowest levels since mid-2020 to -22.6 versus -12.5 expected and -17.7 prior.

Amid these plays, Wall Street managed to close mixed, with Nasdaq posting mild losses versus the softer gains of the DJI30 and S&P 500. However, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a three-day downtrend and rose nearly 1.75% while regaining the 2.81% mark of late.

Moving on, a light calendar in Europe may keep the EURUSD price inside the aforementioned trading range. However, today’s US CB Consumer Confidence for July, prior 98.7, appears to the key for the pair traders to watch. Also important will be the US New Home Sales for June, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July and House Price Index data for May. Above all, the pre-Fed chatters and growth related talks will be crucial to watch for clear directions.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD dribbles between the 10-DMA and the 21-DMA, respectively around 1.0160 and 1.0230. That said, the recently firmer RSI and MACD signals hint at the pair’s further upside.