EUR/USD remains depressed with all eyes on the ECB
|- EUR/USD remains depressed a few pips above two-week lows at 1.1777.
- Grim Eurozone Retail Sales data has offset the positive impact of German Factory Orders.
- Investors are focusing on the ECB, which is expected to hold interest rates later on Thursday.
The Euro (EUR) depreciates for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading around 1.1790 at the time of writing, only a few pips above two-week lows, at 1.1777. Mixed Eurozone data has failed to lift the Euro, and the focus shifts now to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Earlier on the day, a larger-than-expected decline in the Eurozone's retail consumption offset the moderate optimism triggered by upbeat German Factory Orders, while a moderate risk-averse sentiment is underpinning support for the USD.
Data from the US was also mixed on Wednesday. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index showed better-than-expected results, but the employment sub-index disappointed, increasing concerns about the labour market, as the ADP Employment Change report showed a poor net job creation in January.
The ECB is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged at 13:15 GMT on Thursday. In the US, Initial Jobless Claims and the JOLTS Job Openings will attract particular attention, following Wednesday's downbeat ADP Employment figures.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.38% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.22% | 0.16% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.07% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.38% | -0.29% | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.34% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.06% | 0.21% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.01% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.25% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.03% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.14% | 0.16% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.16% | -0.07% | 0.22% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest market Movers: All eyes are on the ECB
- The Euro remains on the defensive on Thursday, ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision. The central bank will, almost certainly, leave borrowing costs on hold, but investors will be attentive to changes in the rhetoric, as the recent Euro strength is raising concerns about potential deflationary effects. Any dovish hint might send the Euro to fresh lows.
- Earlier on Thursday, Eurozone Retail Sales showed a 0.5% contraction in December, well beyond the 0.2% ciontraction anticipated by market analysts. Furthermore, November's sales have been revised down to a 0.1% growtgh from the 0.2% previously estimated.
- These figures have offset the positive impact of German Factory Orders, which jumped 7.8% in December, against expectations of a 2.2% contraction. In November, industrial orders rose 5.7%, revised up from 5.6%.
- In the US, the ISM Services PMI confirmed that business activity kept expanding at a solid pace in January, with the index showing a steady 53.8 reading, against market expectations of a mild slowdown to 53.5. The strong activity, however, is not boosting demand for labour, as the Employment Index eased to 50.3 from 51.7 in December.
- Previously, the US ADP Employment Change report had raised alarms about the health of the labour market. Data from January revealed that private sector employment rose by a mere 22K, well below the market consensus of 48K, while December's reading was revised down to 37K from previous estimations of 41K.
- Later on the day, Eurozone Retail Sales are expected to show a 0.2% contraction in December, offsetting the previous month's 0.2% increase.
- In the US, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to show an increase to 212K in the week of January 30, up from 209K in the previous one
- Later on, the US JOLTS Job Openings are forecast to show a mild increase to 7.2 million in December, from 7.146 million vacancies in November.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains pinned near the 1.1775 resistance area
The EUR/USD pair consolidates losses with support at 1.1775 in the bears' focus. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is practically flat, highlighting a neutral momentum, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) wavers near 40, indicating a bearish-leaning tone.
A confirmation below the mentioned 1.1775 area (February 2, 3 lows) opens the path towards the January 23 low, at 1.1728, and the January 22 low, at 1.1670. On the upside, immediate resistance is at Wednesday's high, near 1.1840, and the previous support area, near 1.1900 (close to January 28, 29, and 30 lows).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate
One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital.
Read more.Next release: Thu Feb 05, 2026 13:15
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 2.15%
Previous: 2.15%
Source: European Central Bank
Economic Indicator
ECB Press Conference
Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy decision, the ECB President gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. The president’s comments may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If the president adopts a hawkish tone it is considered bullish for the EUR, whereas if the tone is dovish the result is usually bearish for the Euro.
Read more.Next release: Thu Feb 05, 2026 13:45
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: European Central Bank
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.