ECB: A long period of inaction expected – Nomura
|Analysts at Nomura offer their insights on Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcements due at 1145 GMT.
Key Quotes:
“Policy announcements at June's ECB meeting were surprising more in timing than in content. The ECB made some important changes to guidance on its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and rates. With these announcements, a long period of inaction is likely; however, some uncertainty remains as to what the ECB actually meant by "through the summer" in the context of leaving rates on hold.
A recent article citing "policymakers speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity" suggested that the wording was sufficiently vague for some to argue it is consistent with no move until the 24 October 2019 meeting, while others believe it could be as soon as 25 July 2019.
We continue to forecast the first 15bp hike in the deposit rate in September 2019, followed by a further 10bp hike in all policy rates in Q4 2019.”
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