Details for the day ahead - TDS
|Analysts a TD Securities offered their outlook for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
"NZD Offshore holdings of NZGBs expected to keep shrinking (prior 58.7%) as the bond market is increasingly dysfunctional. Dairy auction tonight.
AUD RBA Board meeting minutes for September will be closely scrutinized for discussion about Westpac’s SVR hike (ANZ and CBA hiked after the meeting). The policy statement glossed over the hike with “Some lenders have increased mortgage rates by small amounts, although the average mortgage rate paid is lower than a year ago”. Nothing else new to discuss, although they were right that the economy grew at an above-trend pace in H1 (in fact, was a lot stronger) although they did not have that data point for the Board meeting.
SEK The unemployment rate for August is released. Markets look for a small improvement in the SA measure to 6.3%. First Deputy Governor af Jochnick participates on a panel on household debt and financial stability at 9:10am BST.
EUR ECB President Draghi delivers a keynote speech in Paris at 8:15 BST.
HUF In line with the unanimous consensus we expect the NBH to keep all its policy rates on hold at today's Monetary Council (MC) meeting. August CPI inflation was slightly disappointing, coming out at 3.4% Y/Y, unchanged from July, while the consensus was looking for a fall to 3.3%. But the MC is unlikely to be too concerned about this as core inflation excluding indirect taxes fell to 2.2% Y/Y in August from a prior 2.4%, the lowest level since May of last year. At today's meeting the MC should have the forecasts from the September Inflation Report to hand, but we do not expect any significant changes to their inflation forecasts. At the June meeting the MC adopted a slightly less dovish stance, signaling that the current loose monetary policy was not expected to be maintained over the whole 5-8 quarter forecast period. But at today's meeting the MC will see no particular reason to change its current loose policy stance yet and will maintain its current program of unconventional measures.
CAD Manufacturing sales will provide an update on growth conditions for July where TD looks for a below-consensus 0.3% advance (market: 0.6%) on a drag from energy, while retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum are unlikely to have a significant impact. This should leave volumes largely unchanged on the month.
USD The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is the lone data release with markets calling for a decline to 66 from 67.
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