Australian Dollar edges lower after hitting 15-month highs in holiday-thinned trade
|- Australian Dollar retreats after reaching a 15-month high of 0.6932 on Monday.
- Australia’s strong PMI and employment data reinforced expectations of tighter RBA monetary policy.
- The US Dollar weakened amid rumors of FX market intervention to support the Japanese Yen.
The Australian Dollar declines against the US Dollar (USD) after opening from a gap up on Monday. The AUD/USD pair depreciates as the Greenback gains on increased safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the recent comments from US President Donald Trump over the weekend.
However, the AUD/USD pair appreciated as the US Dollar came under pressure amid rumors of a possible intervention in FX markets to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). According to Bloomberg, traders said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had carried out a so-called rate check with major banks, requesting indicative exchange rates, a step widely viewed as a signal that authorities may be preparing to facilitate another intervention.
Australia’s strong PMI data reinforced the likelihood of a tighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), supported by employment data. RBA policymakers acknowledged that inflation has eased significantly from its 2022 peak, though recent data suggests renewed upward momentum. Headline CPI slowed to 3.4% YoY in November but remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
US Dollar edges higher on safe-haven demand
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is recovering ground and trading near 97.10 at the time of writing.
- Trump warned he would impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Ottawa were to strike a trade deal with China, the BBC reported over the weekend. In response, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday that Canada has no plans to pursue a free trade agreement with China, clarifying that his recent understanding with Beijing only reduced tariffs in a few sectors that had been hit recently.
- The US Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, slightly more than expected and the previous reading of 4.3%. Additionally, the Initial Jobless Claims came in at 200K last week, below the market consensus of 212K.
- US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 2.8% year-over-year in November from 2.7% in October. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index rose by 0.2%. The annual core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose by 2.8% in November, following the 2.7% increase recorded in October and matching the market expectation.
- US President Donald Trump said he would step back from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his effort to take possession of Greenland. He said earlier there is “no going back” on his ambitions regarding Greenland, alongside earlier threats to impose new 10% tariffs on eight European Union (EU) countries.
- President Trump also said that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had “formed the framework of a future deal regarding Greenland.” However, he did not outline the parameters of the so-called framework, and it remained unclear what the agreement would entail.
- Fed officials have signaled little urgency to ease policy further until there is clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target. Morgan Stanley analysts revised their 2026 outlook, now forecasting one rate cut in June followed by another in September, compared with their previous expectation of cuts in January and April.
- Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which came in at 52.4 in January versus 51.6 prior. Services PMI climbed to 56.0 in January from the previous reading of 51.1, while the Composite PMI climbed to 55.5 in January versus 51.0 prior.
- Employment Change, which arrived at 65.2K in December, swung from 28.7K job losses (revised from 21.3K) in November, compared with the consensus forecast of 30K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.1% from 4.3% prior, against the market consensus of 4.4%.
Australian Dollar remains above 0.6900 near upper ascending channel boundary
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6920 on Monday. Daily chart analysis indicates that the pair is rising within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 80.06 is overbought, signaling stretched momentum.
The AUD/USD pair could test the confluence resistance zone around the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 0.6942, the highest level since February 2023. On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA at 0.6800, aligned with the lower ascending channel boundary. A break below the channel would weaken the bullish bias and target the 50-day EMA of 0.6676.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | -0.18% | -1.14% | -0.13% | -0.28% | -0.20% | -0.57% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | 0.15% | -0.80% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.12% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | -0.15% | -0.95% | 0.05% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.39% | |
| JPY | 1.14% | 0.80% | 0.95% | 1.02% | 0.86% | 0.94% | 0.57% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.20% | -0.05% | -1.02% | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | 0.28% | -0.05% | 0.11% | -0.86% | 0.15% | 0.08% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | -0.12% | 0.03% | -0.94% | 0.07% | -0.08% | -0.37% | |
| CHF | 0.57% | 0.25% | 0.39% | -0.57% | 0.44% | 0.28% | 0.37% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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