AUD/USD: near-term losses may stall in the 0.7130/0.7160 area
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- AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7218 and has started out the week on the back foot following a risk-off day on Friday following the FOMC statement on Thursday.
- The week ahead for Aussie traders is jam-packed, including Q3 wages and Oct employment, but the key releases are all Tuesday-Thursday.
AUD/USD fell from the 0.73 handle following the FOMC statement which puts the pair back on the longer term track to the downside as investors get behind the dollar once again. The divergence between the FOMC and RBA is in play following a disappointing RBA Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. The pair then tried to steady just below the mid-point of the 0.72 handle but slipped further as US stocks continued to bleed following a risk-off session in Asia and Europe.
What's in store this week for Aussie traders?
Analysts at ING Bank noted that AUD/USD has managed to hold onto its gains quite well this week, despite a resurgent US dollar:
"Challenges this week will come from China, where Tuesday’s October Industrial Production data and the ever-present risk of USD/CNY breaking above 7.00 pose downside risks to the AUD. Our bearish call on the month is largely on the back of a strong USD and a view that the prospects of a US: China trade deal will have evaporated by early December. Also look out for Australia October jobs data on Wednesday. AUD/USD has recently broken out of a well-defined bear channel. This warns that any near-term losses may stall in the 0.7130/0.7160 area. If this is the case, then a subsequent break above the 0.7300 could deliver substantial follow-through. Just a word of caution here!
AUD/USD levels
- Support levels: 0.7200 0.7170 0.7135.
- Resistance levels: 0.7250 0.7280 0.7315.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that technical readings in the daily chart are far from losing the positive tone:
"The 20 DMA maintains a firm bullish slope well below the current level, while technical indicators have barely retreated from overbought readings, holding well into positive ground with limited downward strength. Furthermore, the pair remains above the 61.8% retracement of its September/October decline at around 0.7200 now the immediate support. Below the level, bears will have more chances while above 0.7250 the scale will lean in favor of bulls. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the bearish case is firmer, as the pair broke below its 20 SMA, now losing directional strength above the current level, while technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes well into negative ground."
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