AUD/USD: Corrective pullback eyes to regain 0.6900 ahead of RBA’s Bullock
|- AUD/USD rebounds from 23-month low as bears take a breather after the biggest daily fall since Monday.
- US Treasury yields, stock futures print mild gains to portray market’s consolidation amid a light calendar and fewer macros.
- Comments from Fed’s Powell, Daly also seemed to have paused the bear run of late.
- RBA’s Bullock eyed for the pace of the next rate hike, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will be important too.
AUD/USD bears step back from two-year low as the quote refreshes intraday peak near 0.6875 during an inactive Asian session on Friday.
The Aussie pair’s latest rebound from the multi-month low lacked any major change in the macros. However, improvement in the key risk barometers and optimism ahead of a speech from RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock could be cited as favoring the latest run-up in the quote.
That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields also portray a corrective pullback after refreshing a two-week low the previous day, around 2.86% by the press time, whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while licking its wound near one-year low.
Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly could also be linked to the AUD/USD pair’s latest rebound. Fed’s Powell repeated the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates by half a percentage point at each of its next two policy meetings. The Fed boss also pledged that if data turn the wrong way "we're prepared to do more." On the same line, Fed’s Daly mentioned, “Is it 50, is it 25, is it 75? Those are things that I’ll deliberate with my colleagues, but my own starting point is we don’t want to go so quickly or so abruptly that we surprise Americans”.
It should be noted that the broad risks concerning inflation, economic growth and China’s covid, not to forget the Ukraine-Russia crisis, remain as is, which in turn challenges the AUD/USD buyers despite the latest rebound.
Also, RBA’s Bullock need not cite the economic fears from China’s lockdowns and rallying inflation to keep the AUD/USD on the road to recovery, failing to do so can renew the multi-day bottom marked the previous day.
Following that, the preliminary readings of US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for May, expected 64 versus 65.2 prior, will be eyed for fresh impulse.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD recovery moves remain doubtful until crossing the early month’s swing low surrounding 0.7030. That said, the 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of March 2020 to February 2021, around 0.6760, lures the bears of late.
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