Technical Weekly – The Best is Yet to Come
|Crypto traders will brace for a split sentiment in the crypto space as they start a fresh trading week. The prices of bitcoin continue to consolidate in the 8200 area, while some of the altcoins have been attempting to reclaim their recent highs.
On the bright side, we’ve seen data shows that institutional investors have been increasing their long positions in bitcoin, along with the positive developments in the equities markets, the macro environment could provide adequate support for bitcoin staying at the current level. However, we need to see more evidence to confirm if a new trend has been developed.
News-wise, China seems has downplayed the US-China trade talks outcome, describing the results “wary but welcoming”. Economists believe that the partial trade deal is an “uncertain” arrangement and there does not appear to be a viable path to reduce existing tariffs. In other words, the truce is unlikely to reverse market sentiment in the long term, and that could have underlying negative effects on bitcoin.
What you missed
Facebook’s Libra faces more headwinds from global regulators. BBC reports that G7 nations have drafted a report saying that Libra could pose a risk to the global financial system, and the company should not release it until it proves it’s safe and secure. The news comes just days after payments giants Mastercard and Visa pulled out of the Libra project due to regulatory concerns.
In the US, the SEC has filed an emergency action and obtained a temporary restraining order to halt the 1.7 billion USD token sales from Telegram Group and its subsidiary TON. The SEC says the companies failed to provide investors with information regarding their business operations, financial condition, risk factors, and management that the securities laws require.
China Construction Bank upgrades its blockchain trade finance platform, as the trade volume reached over 53 billion USD. The bank says the enhancements will able to help more Chinese exporters and the company is committed to investing more in technology innovations.
Price Analysis
The pair has produced some higher lows on the daily chart last week (figure 1) and reclaimed the 20-day moving average area (around 8215) very slowly.
The squeeze in the Bollinger bands suggests that volatility may increase in the near term, but the volume divergent could indicate that there’s an only limited short-term upside.
OKEx’s BTC Long/Short Ratio remained at a low level, generally
The COT Summary (figure 3) highlights the split sentiment in the markets. The data suggests that asset manager accounts have increased both long and short positions dramatically, while leveraged names slightly reduced their exposure, but this category still has held most of the short positions.
Figure 1: BTCUSD Daily Chart(Source: FX Street)
Figure 2: OKEx’s Long/Short Ratio (Source: OKEx)
Figure 3: Bitcoin COT Summary (Source: CME)
XRP/USD
XRP/USD is an interesting pair to look at. As OKExTechnicals explained previously, the pair has been developing a bullish flag formation since early October, and apparently, the second flag has been completed.
The pair seems to need more momentum to develop a third flagpole, as trade volume seems to lack behind, and that would be something XRP bulls should keep a close eye on.
Figure 4: XRPUSD 4-Hour Chart (Source: FX Street)
ETH/USD
This week could be a critical week for ETH traders as the ETHUSD rally ran out of steam, resulted in a false breakout last week.
The stochastic oscillator suggests that the pair has entered the overbought zone during the rally last week and failed to have enough momentum to maintain its direction.
The pair could need more time to consolidate before another breakout attempt.
Figure 5: ETHUSD Daily Chart (Source: FX Street)
ZRX/USD
ZRX was one of the gainers in the Monday Asia session, it traded 11% higher against USDT at the time of writing.
However, some indicators suggest that the rally could come to an end. The RSI has already reached the overbought levels, and we’ve seen cases of price correction followed suit previously (yellow circles).
Trade volume didn’t match the recent price actions. This also suggests the rally could be losing out momentum.
At the same time, the 0.3 area was the lows back in May and June, which could be turned into resistance.
Figure 6: ZRXUSD Daily Chart (Source: FX Street)
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