BTC and ETH slide into oversold territory as macro signals mixed
|Bitcoin (BTC) – Technical analysis chart
As of February 11th, 2026, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are under heavy technical pressure following sharp breakdowns from key support zones.
Bitcoin (BTC) has decisively broken below the $74K–$80K resistance cluster and sliced through the $70K support level. It got extremely oversold (RSI < 20 !) as it approached $60K support zone and bounced up. Price is now trading near $67K and it is likely to test that $60K again before it continues it's recovery to $74K. Hence, we would be buyers near that $60K level. Stop loss at $57K.
The chart shows a confirmed bear flag breakdown, reinforcing the bearish continuation pattern. BTC remains well below its 200-day SMA (~$101,500), confirming a long-term downtrend. The RSI at 30.7 signals near-oversold conditions, while MACD remains deeply negative, indicating strong downside momentum. A technical bounce is possible, but structure remains bearish unless BTC reclaims $74K.
Ethereum (ETH) mirrors the weakness. ETH broke below $2,400 and is now hovering near $1,975, testing the key $2,000 – $2,100 support zone. The breakdown from its descending channel confirms trend continuation lower. ETH trades far beneath its 200-day SMA (~$3,580). RSI sits at 29, marking very oversold territory, while MACD momentum continues to deteriorate. If $1,800 fails, downside risk accelerates.
Ethereum (ETH) – Technical analysis chart
Macro backdrop – February 2026
The latest January U.S. headline CPI printed 2.7% YoY for December 2025. Core components remain sticky, particularly in services and housing, with U.S. core CPI at 2.6% YoY. While inflation is far below peak cycle highs, it is not yet convincingly trending toward the Fed’s 2.0% YoY target.
On the labor front, U.S. employment remains relatively resilient. The January 2026 U.S. employment report showed +130K payrolls, higher from 50K in December 2025, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, a drop from 4.4% a month ago.
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.50% – 3.75% at its late-January meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent stance. Markets have scaled back aggressive rate-cut expectations for 2026, now pricing in only modest easing later in the year if inflation resumes declining.
Outlook
Liquidity conditions are no longer tightening, but neither are they easing aggressively. With inflation sticky and the Fed cautious, the macro backdrop is neutral-to-slightly restrictive for risk assets. Technically, both BTC and ETH are oversold but structurally bearish. A reflex rally is possible, yet sustainable upside requires reclaiming broken resistance levels—and, critically, a clearer dovish pivot from the Fed. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
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