Bitcoin Price Top Forecast: bogged down in a range

• Bitcoin recovered from recent lows, but the upside is limited.
• Fundamental background diverted the attention to altcoins.
• More rangebound trading wih bullish bias lies ahead. 

The cryptocurrency market resumed its trip to the North, though with no stellar growth this time. Bitcoin has gained 4% in recent seven days amid low volatility and lack of enthusiasm on the market. May be it all about Easter and thin pre-holiday liquidity, or the market is waiting for new catalysts to decide upon its next move. We shall wait and see.
midline of 1-day Bollinger Band and psychological $5,000.

What’s going on in the market

This week was packed with events, though most of them were irrelevant for the Bitcoin. THis fact helps to explain rather sluggish performance of the largest digital coin amid head spinning volatility of some altcoins.

Bitcoin SV debacle

Craig Wright’s war against the world and Bitcoin SV delisting saga are the most exciting themes of the week. Several large cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance, Kraken and ShapeShift delisted or promised to delist the coin supported by the self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto who promised to sue a Twitter user under the nickname Holdonaut. While the community mostly supported the delisting decision, some exchanges preferred to keep the coin. For example, OKEx said that it would not remove Bitcoin SV as it was not in breach with its rules and requirements.

Bitcoin SV lost over 16% in the recent seven days and became the worst performing cryptocurrency out of top-20.

Regulators and governments

Japanese financial regulator might require cryptocurrency exchanges to tighten cold wallet security measures by mainly strengthening internal oversight.Earlier this year the Japanese Financial Security Authority (FSA) introduced limits on the amount of funds kept in hot wallets. Now it is looking to tighten the security requirements to cold storages.

Meanwhile, the central bank of Russia published a report devoted to the benefits and deficiencies of central banks digital currencies. According to the Russian regulator, the concept has a potential to reduce transaction costs, however, it is still too risky to consider it as a viable option to cash money. The central bankers named cyber attacks among the top threats that might derail the financial system.

Binance Chain goes live

Binance DEX announced the launch of Binance Chain Mainnet. It is the proprietary blockchain of one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges by average daily trading volumes. On April 23, BNB balances will be transferred from Ethereum blockchain to Binance Chain. However, the exchange said that the date may be changed depending on the migration process.

Binance Coin gained 27% in recent seven days and became the second best performing cryptocurrency out of top-20. The first place goes to Tesoz. The coin jumped 44% with no obvious fundamental justifications.

BTC/USD, 1D chart

BTC/USD managed to recover from under $5,000, though the upside momentum remains too weak to take the first digital coin outside the recent range. While the long-term picture supports the bull’s case scenario, the ascent may prove to be hard and slow. 

An Evening Star candlestick formation was not confirmed by a big bearish candle, which means that the market is well positioned for further growth. However, a flat weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a neutral zone, which implies a slow motion within a range with mild upside bias. 

Meanwhile, the prices moved outside Bollinger Band (weekly). The upper boundary of the Band (currently at $5,035) now serves as a support level, in conjunction with a host of the technical indicators, including a midline of 1-day Bollinger Band and psychological $5,000.

Meanwhile, if the price moves below $4,500 strengthened by DMA200, the correction will stop being healthy and transform into a bearish trend with the next focus on $4,360 (DMA50 and lower boundary of daily Bollinger Band) and psychological $4,000 followed by DMA100.

On the upside, we will need to see a sustainable move above $5,300 and the recent high $5,468, followed by $5,630 with weekly SMA50 located right above this handle.

The Forecast Poll of experts worsened since the previous week as expectations on short-term and mid-term frames are bearish. While a longer-term forecast is bullish, both 1-quarter and 1-month price estimations are below $5,000 handle. On a weekly basis, BTC is likely to stall at $5,064.