Analysis

What can we expect from today’s new UK Prime Minister appointment?

Today's Highlights

  • Sterling awaits new Prime Minister

  • US Dollar strengthened by Middle East tensions

 

Current Market Overview

By the middle of the day, Britain will have a new Prime Minister, the Conservative Party will have a new leader and he is likely to continue to divide opinion. Boris Johnson is the most likely name in the golden envelope. There have already been resignations ahead of the announcement, but most of those would have been shoved out anyway, so it isn’t too dramatic.

The New Prime Minister will inherit escalating military tension between Iran and the UK, tension which has strengthened the US Dollar, due to its safe haven status, as well as the poisoned chalice of Brexit. Good luck, Sir, whoever you are.

There is an item of UK data today, in the guise of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders Survey, which is expected to remain subdued amidst Brexit uncertainty; no surprises there, then. We will also get a speech from Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist; someone who has voiced his own frustration at the Brexit delays causing stagnation in the UK economy.

US Dollar stronger as safe haven – will it last?

The US Dollar retains its current strength in spite of calls for interest rate cuts from within and without the US Federal Reserve and in spite of higher oil costs, which tend to weaken the USD. A lack of US data today should see the USD tread water unless there are further developments on the Iran situation. We will get some US housing data this afternoon, as well as crude oil stock levels, which can be influential.

New Zealand Dollar could get a boost tonight

Overnight tonight, we will see New Zealand’s trade balance data. A slight shrinking of the annual deficit is expected, which would benefit the Kiwi Dollar… assuming the forecasts are right, of course.

Happy Birthday, Harry Potter – sort of…

And Harry Potter is 30 today. Well… Daniel Radcliffe, the man we saw grow from child to man at Hogwarts is 30. How old does that make you feel? I feel ancient. I remember Hogwarts’ opening ceremony. Happy Birthday, Daniel. I don’t know if he reads this, by the way.

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