Weekly technical and trading outlook – USD/JPY
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Last Update At 19 Sep 202100:05GMT.
Trend daily chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
109.92
55 HR EMA
109.80
Trend hourly chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
64
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily analysis
Consolidation with upside bias.
Resistance
110.79 - Aug's high (11th).
110.44 - Sep's high (8th).
110.15 - last week's high (Mon).
Support
109.82 - Last Thur's high (now sup).
109.61 - Last Thur's reaction low (NY).
109.46 - Last Thur's Asian high (now sup).
USD/JPY - 109.99.. The pair went through a 'roller-coaster' week. Despite falling fm 110.15 (Mon) to a 4-week low of 109.12 Wed in tandem with US yields, price later rallied on broad-based usd's strength n climbed back to 110.07 Fri.
On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar 2020 on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's rally to 111.71 the same month signals correction over. Despite dlr's erratic fall to 102.60 (Jan 2021), subsequent rise to 116.65 at the start of Jul signals pullback is over n as price has risen from 108.73 in early Aug to 110.79, re-test of 111.65 is envisaged but abv needed to head twd 2020 112.22 peak. Having said that, dlr's drop fm 110.79 in Aug would bring choppy swings, Only below 108.73 risks 108.35, break extends twd 107.49.
Today, dlr's rally to 110.07 (NY) in tandem with US yields suggests pull back fm Sep's 110.44 peak has ended at 109.12 n rising hourly indicators signal upside bias remains for gain to 110.15, break extends twd 110.44, 'bearish diver gences' on hourly indicators would cap dlr at 110.79. Below 109.82 risks 109.46.
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