Weekly Column: The “Trickster”

Review and Preview

U.S. equity markets finished in record territory Friday after Congress paved the way for President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid package and the jobs report showed a drop in the unemployment rate. Stocks rose despite a ho-hum jobs report with the addition of 49,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, according to the Labor Department. In Washington, the upper chamber of Congress early Friday morning voted 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote, to adopt a budget resolution for coronavirus relief. Later on Friday, the measure was passed by the House. – Jonathan Garber, “S&P 500, NASDAQ Hit Records as Congress Nears $1.9T Coronavirus Relief,” www.foxbusiness.com, February 5, 2021.

Like Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day 2021, the “Trickster” – Mercury retrograde – was front and center last week. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Tuesday, February 2, and returned to his burrow in the ground and thus forecasting six more weeks of winter. The “Trickster” also began its reversal through the cosmos last weekend, on January 30. Just before Mercury’s backwardation began, world equity markets experienced their most bearish technical ending to a week in since late October. That bearish setup on Friday, January 29, was abruptly negated on Monday, February 1, as world stock indices and other financial markets quickly reversed and returned to their former trends. It was like Groundhog Day all over again, just one day ahead of schedule.

When it is Mercury’s time to turn retrograde, matters often appear to go backward and upside down. This happens every three months for a period lasting three weeks (January 30-February 20). It affects communications on all levels. And yes, we know astrologers hate it when Mercury retrograde is blamed for anything and everything. But let’s be clear: it’s not causal. But it is correlative and occurs often enough to warrant attention if you are a trader employing market timing studies. It just so happens that is our niche, our specialty because market timing provides that extra edge that all traders seek. What astrology doesn’t provide is the ability or initiative to act upon this knowledge. That is where free will comes in, and combined with the correlation to cosmic phenomena, the outcome of a matter is determined.

In any event, the prior week (January 29) ended very bearish with the steepest decline in three months. But all those losses were recovered with strong rallies by the end of last week, which was very bullish, negating the bearishness of the previous week. Welcome to another live episode of Mercury the Trickster turned retrograde. It should be interesting as Mercury retrograde continues this month, and we approach the first passage of Saturn square Uranus, the Renegade, on February 17. Flip-flops and sudden, unexpected events and changes of direction become the norm.

In the U.S., the S&P and NASDAQ made new all-time highs on Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average just missed. In Europe, the German DAX came within17 points of a new all-time high, but the other indices were still well below their yearly highs. In Asia and the Pacific Rim. India’s NIFTY index made a new all-time high, and Australia’s ASX rallied to its highest mark since the pandemic low of last March, but the other indices remained well below their highs of January 14-25. Thus, bearish divergences still persist in several regions of the world. Does this mean it is time to apply the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” axiom now that the next U.S. stimulus blowout is about to be enacted? Could be. It should provide new ammunition for the WallStreetBets crowd. Hedgers beware – or be prepared.

It was a noteworthy week in precious metals, too. Silver soared to 30.35, its highest mark since February 13, 2013. This rally was the “next big thing” recommended by the WallStreetBets group that banded together on the Reddit platform and then traded on the Robinhood platform the prior week to drive GameStop prices to the sky, causing great pain to the professional hedging community as they were caught off guard with their short positions. The hedgers got even last week and drove GameStop sharply down, proving once again the old adage that “You can make a small fortune in trading, but it usually follows starting with a larger fortune.” But back to the metals. As Silver soared above $30/ounce, Gold fell below $1800/ounce, testing its lows of late November. Within the next three days, Silver fell nearly 15%, but the rallies may not be over yet, with more stimulus checks on the way. They will surely find their way into the hands of the new class of speculators bent on taking it to the professional trading establishment (Saturn squared by Uranus).

In other markets, Crude Oil rallied to its highest mark in over a year. Bitcoin came back and is approaching 40,000 again. Corn soared to 558, its highest level in almost eight years. It is a wild time, every bit as crazy as expected given that we are in the midst of three outer planet hard aspects, December through February, and now with Mercury retrograde in Aquarius added to the cosmic mix. 

Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts 

There is a long history of high budget deficits being associated with inflation…maintaining stimulus longer than needed usually creates costs that go beyond the short-term federal balance sheet. Michael D. Bordo and Mickey D. Levy, “The Short March Back to Inflation,” Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2021.

This book is an invitation to let go of knowledge and opinions that are no longer serving you well and to anchor your sense of self in flexibility rather than consistency.” – Adam Grant from his book “Think Again,” as reviewed by Philip Delves Broughton, Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2021.

It’s the mid-late 1970’s shaping up all over again. That was the last time the 45-year Saturn/Uranus waning square occurred. Richard Nixon had recently resigned as the U.S. President, rather than submitting himself to impeachment. Jimmy Carter and the Democrats defeated the Republicans to take over the Executive branch of the U.S. government. Inflation was just about to explode before Carter’s one-term stint would end. The stock market made a 4-year high as his term began, but within 18 months, it had about 25%. By the time of the election season in 1980, it was even slightly lower. History could repeat. Joe Biden seems a lot like Jimmy Carter to me, the kind of congenial person you could sit and chat with on the porch of your home at the end of a long day.

Yet, as students of geocosmic studies, we are also aware that under Saturn square Uranus, nothing goes as expected or planned. Government programs and financial markets are all subject to disruptions and changes this year. Conflicts between government rules and regulations versus free markets and the continuing subsummation of small companies by large tech companies, are likely to clash. That is the nature of Saturn (plans and goals) in a hard aspect to Uranus (sudden, unforeseen events or consequences to one’s actions). It occurs in three passages between February 17 and December 24, 2021. It will be the underlying theme of our Forecast 2021 Webinar taking place next week. It is a year where it will be advisable to be flexible in your thoughts, opinions, goals, and expectations lest you risk sudden shocks due to being overly rigid. Uranus shatters the glass of Saturn’s structures and systems. That which rises sharply can fall even more sharply without much warning.

Shorter-term, we may get another taste of the Saturn/Uranus dynamic this week as Venus will conjoin Jupiter and Saturn and square Uranus, February 6-11. Right in the middle of this time band is the midpoint of Mercury retrograde (February 9-10), another “change” indicator. We just came out of a similar cosmic configuration January 20-29, when both the Sun and Mars formed similar hard aspects to Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. Get ready for round two.

It won’t end there. The following week finds the Saturn/Uranus square occurring February 17. Transiting Mars will next conjoin the Sun/Mercury in the New York Stock Exchange’s founding chart (May 17, 1792), February 19-26. This will be followed by transiting Jupiter in opposition to the NYSE’s founding Uranus on February 21, allowing an orb of correlation of +/- 1 week. The Ides of March (settlement of debts) comes about a month early for the stock market and perhaps the U.S. government, given that the trial of the second impeachment of former President Donald Trump begins now.

With Mercury retrograde, do not be surprised if the Trump defense centers around election fraud. It is likely to be resurrected (Mercury retrograde). At some point, people will likely begin to realize that life isn’t always fair, that some people cheat, and the greatest exploiter of that truism was probably none other than the former President himself. It will soon be time to move on, for both the Democrats regarding the 2016 election and the Republicans regarding the 2020 election. The Independents, which represent the largest voting bloc in the U.S. today, will patiently wait, hoping that the two parties do not destroy one another and the foundation which has become known as the American experience in democracy.

I think that by the Vernal equinox on March 20, 2021, or shortly thereafter, the light at the end of the tunnel will become visible, and Phil the groundhog will be right. A new day, a new season, will begin and both the nation and the world can experience a new sense of optimism. The drama of the past two elections may finally be over. And the arc of COVID-19 may start receding. It’s already showing signs of improvement in the latest data figures for the U.S. So, let’s visualize that it will continue, and we can have a very enjoyable spring and summer with one another. It is possible if we exhibit care, concern, and respect for one another. Follow the guidelines that you know work. That is the antidote for the Saturn/Uranus tendency to suffer from violating the guidelines that work. We are almost there.