Weekly column: Global extremes and the "quiet" metal mania rebound

Review

Treasury yields decline following softer-than-expected U.S. consumer price index gains and ahead of a shortened week featuring the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. CPI slows in January to 2.4% from December’s 2.7%, but that may not be enough to convince the Fed to cut rates, as labor markets remain robust.

— “Treasury Yields Fall as U.S. Inflation Cools,” The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2026, www.wsj.com.

Washington skeptics were quieted Wednesday morning as the January jobs report beat expectations, revealing a resilient American workforce that added 130,000 jobs to start the year. While experts predicted a winter chill for hiring, the 4.3% unemployment rate tells a different story — one of a Main Street economy showing renewed strength.

— Kristen Altus, “Expert Credits Trump Tax Certainty for Economic Confidence, Americans Returning to Workforce,” February 11, 2026, www.foxbusinessnews.com. 

It was a benign trading week for most stock markets around the world. This is somewhat surprising considering we had the CPI, PPI, and employment report released all in the same week due to another brief government shutdown.

In the U.S., the DJIA hit another new all-time high of 50,512 (if you didn’t know, the DJIA was over 50,000, just as Attorney General Pamela Bondi pronounced in congressional hearings this past week!). However, the S&P and Nasdaq have failed to exceed their all-time highs made on January 28 and October 30, 2025, respectively. This constitutes a case of bearish intermarket divergence that may have consequences if not rectified soon.

Across the pond, a similar case of bearish intermarket divergence is in effect. The FTSE 100 registered a fresh new all-time high, as did the Zurich SMI. The German DAX, however, fell short of a new high but still closed positive on the week.

In Asian markets, the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite closed slightly higher but ended the week on a bearish note. The Nikkei was the standout, gapping higher to another new all-time high and closing the week up 2688 points.

Metals had a quiet week, considering the volatility that has entered these markets since the start of the new year. Gold, Silver, and Platinum finished the week mostly unchanged, while Copper finished lower for the week. Having said that, Gold’s rebound looks incomplete, and the white metals appear to be forming a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly charts. Perhaps the volatility is set to pick back up again next week? Crude Oil finished the week lower, as did Natural Gas after the invasion of Iran talk subsided after the weekend. The biggest winner of the week could be the grain markets. Both Soybeans and Wheat ripped higher, hitting prices not seen since November of last year, while Corn eked out a modest gain. Grain markets are showing some relative strength at the moment, which could be a precursor of things to come. More on that below.

The Treasury market caught a bid with T-note futures hitting 113/075 and settling the week just below important technical resistance. Rising T-note futures equate to falling interest rates as bond prices and yields move inversely, signaling that the bond market is not concerned with inflation or interest rate hikes after this week’s economic reports were released. Quite the opposite, actually.

In the crypto markets, the HODLers (investors who “hold on for dear life”) found some solace in the fact that Bitcoin and Ethereum didn’t make another new multi-week low this past week. However, both settled modestly lower for the week. Unfortunately, with Bitcoin only 1/3 of the way through its now bearish primary cycle, it may get worse before it gets better.

Short-term geocosmics

The GOP-led House passed a resolution Wednesday designed to roll back President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, as a half-dozen Republicans joined Democrats in rebuking the administration’s signature economic policy. Democrats plan more anti-tariff votes targeting Trump’s levies on Brazil and other nations, which could split the GOP caucus again in coming weeks.

— Greg Ip and Olivia Beavers, “GOP-Led House Rejects Trump’s Tariffs on Canada,” The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2026.

Uranus is parked right on President Trump’s Midheaven, square his natal Mars/Ascendant at 26–29° Leo. This tense square is being activated by the personal planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars, and the Sun) as they, one by one, form a hard square aspect with Uranus on their way out of Aquarius and into Pisces. In fact, the solar eclipse of next week, February 18, is square Uranus, an indicator of unexpected surprises, chaos, and disruptions. This is affecting not only the public’s perception of the president himself, but also the job he is doing (cue Minnesota and ICE).

The president is also finding it harder to get his way on things. This is indicative of the pushback (from members of his own party, no less) as he is starting to see rebellion against parts of his agenda, including one of his key economic policies, tariffs. Things do not look to get much better for President Trump even after the Solar Eclipse, as Mars finishes things off by squaring Uranus on February 27. We can also throw in the fact that the U.S. Supreme Court could release its ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs on February 20 (same day as the Saturn/Neptune conjunction—you just can’t make this stuff up). If a ruling does indeed come forth during this tumultuous time for the President, the odds don’t imply it will be in his favor.

This cosmic setup is once again activating TUMDI (Trump Uranus Market Disruption Indicator), a term Ray coined last year after observing that Trump tends to make bold statements that disrupt markets during times of heightened Uranus activity. With the Dow and S&P fresh off new all-time highs, there is a lot of “air” underneath indices at the moment. It wouldn’t take much of a spark in TUMDI to send U.S. markets into their largest decline since the April 2025 mini-panic when he first announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs. This is especially the case now that we have entered Mercury’s retrograde shadow period. The Trickster might come out to play a little earlier this time around with his big brother Uranus “holding court” over the playground.

Longer-term thoughts

In a free weekly column that I penned almost a year ago to the day, I laid out my findings on the coming Saturn/Neptune conjunction and its correlation to price spikes in the grain markets. The cause was largely weather-related, mostly due to drought, which in turn shrunk the available supply. The effect was that grain prices would bottom sometime ahead of the conjunction (often more than a year ahead), and would then top within 12–13 months of the exact aspect. Something similar seems to be playing out again this time around as Saturn is set to conjoin Neptune on February 20. Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat all formed longer-term lows in August 2024 (around the time of the Jupiter/Saturn waxing square) and are quietly starting to show constructive chart patterns on the weekly charts. In the case of Soybeans, they are knocking on the door of a potential bullish primary cycle and breaking out of a multi-year downtrend line drawn off the 2022 high.

For futures markets like grains, it can best be said, “Commodity markets run on rotation. Money flows out of yesterday’s surplus and into tomorrow’s shortage long before the fundamentals show up on a chart.” When capital wants to rotate, it can do so with a vengeance. The trick is not to get lulled to sleep by the grind that happens before.