USDCAD Forecast: Canadian dollar edges higher, U.S consumer confidence next
|The Canadian dollar has edged higher in the Friday session, following the trend seen on Thursday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3011, down 0.18% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the U.S, today’s key indicator is UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to remain above the 100-level, with an estimate of 100.4 points.
U.S. consumer inflation reports missed their estimates, and the euro took advantage, posting gains on Thursday. CPI and Core CPI both posted small gains of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. On a year-to-year basis, CPI increased 2.3% in September, down from 2.7% in August. Still, with inflation above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, these readings are unlikely to affect the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates in December, which would mark the fourth rate increase this year. The likelihood of a rate hike remains high, with the CME pegging the odds at 76%.
With the U.S economy continuing to post strong numbers, the Federal Reserve is on track to raise rates in December. This would be the fourth rate hike in 2018, and the markets are expecting three more hikes in 2019. Not surprisingly, this has put pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates as well. The Canadian economy is in good shape, but not nearly as strong as its southern neighbor. The Bank of Canada holds its next policy meeting on October 24, and the strength of key Canadian releases will be a major factor as to whether policymakers raise rates.
USD/CAD Fundamentals
-
8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.3%
-
10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.4
-
10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
-
Day 1 – IMF Meetings
-
12:30 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks
-
12th-18th US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate 71.0B
-
22:30 US FOMC Member Randal Quarles Speaks
Open: 1.3034 High: 1.3041 Low: 1.3002 Close: 1.3011
USD/CAD Technical
|
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
1.2733 |
12831 |
1.2970 |
1.3067 |
1.3198 |
1.3292 |
USD/CAD has posted small losses in the Asian and European sessions
-
1.2970 is providing support
-
1.3067 is the next resistance line
-
Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3067
Further levels in both directions:
-
Below: 1.2970, 1.2831, 1.2733 and 1.2649
-
Above: 1.3067, 1.3198 and 1.3292
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.