USD/JPY: Nine year currency cycles and yearly averages
|USD/JPY's historic range since 1995 traded 147 to 79 lows or 6800 pips and a 27 year mid point at 113.00's. Current USD/JPY lifted from 113's and 114's to 126.00's or 1200 pips.
Last time USD/JPY experienced such a violent move was 2016's central bank interest rate changes when USD/JPY traded 2300 pips down then 1000 pips up.
USD/JPY's current jump to 126's began at 2021 lows at 102 or 2400 pips. From a yearly perspective, USD/JPY matches 2022's at 1300 yearly pips and 2021 at 1300 pips measured from yearly lows and highs. Only other time USD/JPY exceeded 1300 yearly pips was 2014 when the ECB went negative interest rates as USD/JPY traded 2000 pips straight up and 1900 up pips in 2013. Year 2016 was unusual since 1995 as USD/JPY traded 2300 pips higher and 1000 pips lower.
Overall, 1300 yearly pips is fairly average for USD/JPY trading.
Since 2017, USD/JPY never exceeded an 1100 yearly pip range. A full currency cycle is measured in 9 years. Currency cycles are structured in either up or down periods over the 9 years. The current 9 year cycle from 2013 traded 5000 pips higher from 76.00 lows to 126.00's while the previous cycle from 2012 to 2003 traded down 4800 pips.
The 9 year cycle from 1995 to 2004 was also a down period as USD/JPY traded 147 highs to 101 lows or 4600 pips. The current 9 year cycle from 5000 pips exceeded the past 2 cycles by 200 and 400 pips. The cycle from 1995 to 1984 ran straight up.
The past 4 cycles of 9 years ran up, down, down then the current up cycle. The next 9 year cycle if past is prologue forecasts a down cycle. A 9 year cycle is a 9 year trade in one direction for 5000 ish pips.
The full cycle traded from 360.00 highs to 79 lows over a 69 period and a mid point at 219. For 1/4 of 360 factors to 90.00 and 1/3 at 120.00.
USD/JPY Correlates to all JPY cross pairs at an extraordinary 99%. Vital averages are located at 125.34, 124.18, 120.39, 120.30.
GBP/JPY 163.48, 162.51, 159.29, 158.95. GBP/JPY 10 and 14 Year averages targets 168.54 and 169.34. GBP/JPY at 165 is close. GBP/JPY will lead USD/JPY and all JPY cross pairs lower.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.