USD/JPY, GBP/USD, BTC/USD [Video]

• US CPI may offer clues on Fed's next move, USDJPY points up.

• UK CPI expected to remain steady, GBPUSD tilts dow.

• Bitcoin flies above 123,000, next target at 125,000.

 

US CPI data – USD/JPY

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Economists expect headline CPI to rise around 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, with core CPI, which excludes food and energy, forecast at about 3.0% annually. These figures will play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook for the second half of 2025. If inflation shows signs of persistence, particularly in housing and services, it could delay expected rate cuts. Conversely, cooler-than-expected numbers may reinforce market expectations of monetary easing later this year. With consumer sentiment and wage growth also under scrutiny, the CPI release could significantly sway equities, bond yields, and the dollar.

USDJPY is trying to extend its bullish move, flirting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 158.86 to 139.85 at 147.17 after the bounce off the 142.60 support level. More increases could reclaim the area of 148.00-148.65 ahead of the 50.0% Fibonacci at 149.40, which holds near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). On the other hand, a slide below the 142.00-142.60 zone could switch the outlook back to bearish.

UK CPI – GBP/USD

The UK CPI is due for release on Wednesday and this fresh reading is expected to show inflation holding steady at around 3.4% y/y. For context, the May figure was 3.4%, down slightly from April’s 3.5%, largely driven by food, furniture, and household goods. Recent forecasts, including from the Bank of England (BoE), suggest inflation may edge higher toward 3.5% in Q3, before gradually moderating later in the year.

This week’s CPI will be a key input for the Bank of England’s policy decisions. With headline inflation significantly above the 2% target, and the BoE signaling possible rate cuts contingent on cooling inflation, a figure that comes in hotter-than-expected could delay rate cuts, while a softer-than-expected print might accelerate market expectations for easing.

GBPUSD's momentum is weakening today after a series of selling days from the four-year high at 1.3788. Immediate support may come from the long-term uptrend line around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 1.2100 to 1.3788 at 1.3370. A closing day below the latter could endorse a bearish correction.

Record highs – BTC/USD

Bitcoin has surged past 123,000 for the first time, breaking out of its previous narrow trading range and reigniting investor optimism. After months of fluctuating around 100,000, the rally is being fueled by strong ETF demand, short liquidations, and policy optimism from Washington. The election of Donald Trump to a second US term had initially dampened enthusiasm, but with risk assets like stocks hitting record highs, Bitcoin has regained momentum. Analysts believe the real test lies at 125,000, with growing institutional adoption and the cryptocurrency’s capped supply making it an increasingly attractive hedge against inflation.

From a technical perspective, BTCUSD is skyrocketing above the 120,000 round number, continuing the strong buying interest that started after the rebound off the 107,500 barrier. Technical oscillators still reflect bullish momentum.