UK jobs preview: Jobless claims may provide signs of the coronavirus impact, shape pound-positioning
|- The UK's unemployment rate and wage figures for January are now stale in fast-moving markets.
- Claimant Count Change numbers for February are already more up-to-date statistics that may move the pound.
- The figures may impact the pound toward the next shocks.
Data-driven decisions – always good practice for traders and for in general. However, the rapid pace of market movements – alongside coronavirus' spread – makes almost every economic data stale at the moment it is compiled.
Nevertheless, some figures are fresher than others and they can impact positioning ahead of the next virus headlines.
Expectations
In the upcoming UK jobs report, the Claimant Count Change, or jobless claims, are for February. Economists are relatively pessimistic. After the number of the new unemployed rose by a modest 5,500 people in January, a more substantial increase of 21,400 is on the cards.
If claims advance at a faster pace, it may indicate that the respiratory disease already has a detrimental impact on the British economy. Conversely, if the figure is closer to last month's rise or even records a drop, it would indicate the UK labor market was doing well before the outbreak.
As mentioned earlier, the most recent headlines may have a greater impact on the pound, but when the dust settles, it could impact the positioning of sterling toward the next moves.
Before the crisis, wages had the most significant influence on the pound, and they are of interest as well, even though they refer to January. After dipping in December, Average Hourly Earnings including bonuses are set to accelerate from 2.9% to 3%. Excluding extra pay, the pace is set to remain unchanged at 3.2%.
The Unemployment Rate, which is calculated on a three-month basis, is unlikely to budge from the historic low of 3.8% and changes are unlikely.
Pound positioning
GBP/USD has been mostly moving on mood changes related to the US dollar. Demand for the safe-haven greenback has sent cable tumbling down, regardless of the economic situation in the UK. Financial distress overwhelmed all other factors and signs of relief sent the currency pair higher.
The data can impact the next wave. In the next stock market crash, GBP/USD would be able to weather some of the dollars storms while weak data would make it more vulnerable. Upon a relief rally, the rise has the potential to be more significant if British statistics are upbeat, while downbeat data may flatten the pound's curve.
Conclusion
While the rapid spread of coronavirus dominates headlines, UK data – and especially more recent figures – may impact the pound.
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