Analysis

Trading the UK Services PMI with GBP/USD

  • The forward-looking indicator for the UK's largest sector, services, is closely watched and moves the pound.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both downside and upside surprises on this event.
  • The GBPUSD moved, on average, 8 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 29 pips in the following 4 hours.

Buying GBP/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.0343 deviation (56.0898) [BUY Pair]
  • Key Resistance Level:  1.3170 

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.0355 or higher (54.2777 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 26  pips in the first 15 minutes and 76 pips in the following 4 hours.

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.0343 or higher(56.0898 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 26  pips in the first 15 minutes and 76 pips in the following 4 hours.

Selling GBP/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.747 deviation (53.6961) [SELL Pair]
  • Fundamental Support Level: 1.3015

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.747 or less(53.6961 or lower in actual terms), the GBPUSD may go down reaching a range of 34 pips in the first 15 minutes and 80 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.3015 was the low point after the BOE decision on August 2nd. 1.2960 is the lowest level in 2018, seen in mid-July. Further down, 1.2850 is notable. 

GBP/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

The UK, like many other developed economies, relies quite heavily on the services sector. In Britain's case, a lot depends on the financial sector. Confidence ahead of Brexit, which remains a source of uncertainty, may significantly impact the Pound. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

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