The US could add 2‐3m barrels a day of oil production any time soon
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European recovered most intraday losses as British PM May's speech triggered a relief rally. Most indices currently trade around 0.1% lower. Losses at US stock markets are slightly bigger as US investors had some catching up to do after yesterday's holiday (Martin Luther King Day).
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Theresa May promised a clean break for Britain from the EU. She promised to seek an agreement with the bloc that meant "the freest possible trade" while allowing the UK to "control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe". However, she did confirm that both houses of parliament would have a vote on the final Brexit deal.
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German ZEW investor sentiment unexpectedly increased from 63.5 to 77.3 in January (vs. 65.0 expected), the highest level since mid‐2011. However, the important "expectations" index rose less than expected, from 13.8 to 16.6 (vs. 18.4 expected).
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U.K. inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years in December as the pound's decline drove a surge in import costs. Consumer‐price growth increased to 1.6%, the highest since July 2014, from 1.2% in November. A separate report showed the cost of imports soared at the fastest annual rate in more than five years.
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US January Empire Manufacturing disappointed. The indicator declined from a downwardly revised 7.6 to 6.5, while consensus expected 8.5. The index is quite volatile, but it still illustrates the ongoing sting of a strong US dollar and tepid global growth on American factories.
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Credit standards for loans to enterprises tightened somewhat in the fourth quarter, driven mainly by developments in the Netherlands, according to the ECB's Bank Lending Survey. Euro zone banks expect loan demand to rise and qualifying to borrow to be easier in the first quarter of 2017 as economic activity continues to expand.
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Saudi Arabia's energy minister al Falih, said he did not believe the US could add 2‐3m barrels a day of oil production any time soon, despite the recovery in prices. Brent crude trades near the middle of the $54‐58/barrel trading range which is in place since the beginning of December 2016.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a vigorous defence of globalisation and free trade in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which underscored Beijing's desire to play a greater global role as the US turns inward.
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Morgan Stanley said its quarterly earnings climbed 83% and beat analyst expectations as the bank logged its strongest Q4 profit since 2006. Morgan Stanley has tended to struggle toward year‐end, in part due to legal setasides that are now largely behind it.
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