The Dow Jones Industrial Average

J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute is a “real issue” that could damage corporate confidence. “I think trade is a real issue,” Dimon said Tuesday at a conference in New York. “Trade has gone from being a skirmish to being far more important than that. If this goes south in a bad way, and you have other surprises, that could be part of the thing that changes confidence, changes peoples’ willingness to invest.” -Hugh Son, “Jamie Dimon Warns US-China Trade Fight Becoming a ‘Real Issue’ that Could Deter Investment,” https://www.cnbc.com, May 28, 2019.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday that investors should balance exposure to the market with storing cash on the sidelines, because there are “some real worries here.” “I think we could be on the verge of a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy if something doesn’t change soon,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Consumer and corporate confidence [is] waning. Things just don’t feel right in this country.” – Tyler Clifford, “Cramer: The U.S. Economy “Could Be On the Verge of a Significant Slowdown,” https://www.cnbc.com, May 28, 2019.

The dominant phase of the Jupiter/Neptune square is underway. The transition from hope and optimism that began in the month of May has reversed as May came to an end last week.

Prior to May 1, many of the world equity markets were making or testing new all-time highs on or about May 1. Optimism and “irrational exuberance” were in evidence everywhere as talks of a trade deal between China and the USA were close to completion. World trade and the world economy were about to explode, typical of the Jupiter-in-Sagittarius part of this aspect. The S&P and NASDAQ, as well as the Zurich SMI and Australian ASX index were at record highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was close to its all-time high. This was the “setup” phase of the Jupiter/Neptune square discussed at length in this year’s Forecast 2019 Book.

But then the process took a sudden and bizarre turn, with characteristics also related to the Jupiter/Neptune waning square. Imagine that you are in the final round of negotiations with someone you wish to make an agreement with. You ask for further concessions, and the other side says, “Well, if you want that, then you have to give up this other part we agreed to before.” Compromise is the central ingredient in any negotiation. You want something, you have to be willing to give up something for it. But what happens when you take offense at the other side for asking you to give back something you already agreed to?  Not much. You keep negotiating, trying to find other points of compromise until both parties agree on something in the middle, where each side gets something and gives up something so that it seems fair and balanced. Or, do you take such offense and loudly proclaim that the other side reneged on their prior commitment, alleging the other party has acted in bad faith? Such allegations and the accompanying act of changing the narrative from good will to allegations of dishonestly, torpedoes the agreement. Alleging (or actually experiencing) dishonesty and deception are also characteristics of Jupiter square Neptune. The negotiations break down, not because one side wanted to change the terms agreed to earlier, perhaps in response to requests for new conditions requested, but because of the implied deception in doing so, and then making it public. It is a strange way to negotiate, but one that is reflective of the current cosmic arrangement.

Stock markets reacted negatively to the sudden change in the trade negotiations, to the realization that what was expected to be a huge trade deal leading to a huge increase in world trade, has now morphed into a major disappointment that could lead to a contraction – not an expansion – of the world economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which started the month testing 26,700, ended the month testing 24,800, a difference of almost 2000 points. Optimism is turning towards hysteria, with the possibility of a mini-panic erupting as we approach the June 9-24 time band outlined in previous columns as one of the most important geocosmics periods of 2019. We are already experiencing the influences associated with this cosmic set up.

As worries grow that the political and financial realms are losing control, investors seek other financial vehicles in which to place their monies. Hence, treasuries have soared to new yearly highs. In times when the concern starts to become more serious and fears of systemic disruptions are sensed, investors go to Gold. Last week witnessed a strong rally in the yellow metal, back above 1310, when just a week ago it was trading under 1270.

 

SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS

Will the U.S. Dollar soon lose its status as the world’s premier currency? The consensus is no – it’s said that any move away from the dollar would take decades. This view is too complacent. Developments in the foreign exchange markets during the past 18 months point towards dedollarization. – Sahil Mahtani, “The Dollar May Be Knocked Off Its Pedestal,” Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2019.

U.S. allies, looking to buck American control over international trade, are developing alternate systems that don’t rely on the U.S. currency… Global trade runs on dollars, giving the U.S. extraordinary power over nearly every entity that imports or exports anything anywhere. That clout has long frustrated America’s enemies, making them vulnerable to U.S. trade sanctions. – Justin Scheck and Bradley Hope, “Dollar Rivals Emerge, Testing U.S. Power,” Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2019.

There are often unintended consequences when one embarks on a new course of action. In the case of starting a new trade war with increasing tariffs, one consequence is that those affected by your actions will seek other trading partners, or other ways to increase their trading practices in ways that adversely affect you. Creating avenues to exchange goods for different currencies, other than the U.S. Dollar, is beginning to gain momentum. This is one of the themes of Saturn and Pluto conjunct in Capricorn, on the natal Pluto in the USA chart.

We have twin cosmic challenges right now: the Jupiter/Neptune square and the Saturn/Pluto/Moon’s South Node conjunction in Capricorn. Jupiter in Sagittarius is the wish to expand and grow. It “believes” things are good and getting better. Saturn and Capricorn are the opposite: the tendency is to contract and pull back. It is not operating on a “belief,” but rather on the “reality” of what is actually happening. Each of these dynamics is reaching one of their climax points in June, particularly June 9-24. Hold on. This ride is just beginning.

What can one expect? What can one do now? You can either this cosmic energy to exhibit random acts of kindness, compassion, and help to others (but remember to be truthful and honest), or you can exhibit acts of deception and coercion, trying to bend others to your way of doing things, only to find rejection. On the side of positive possibilities, Saturn/Pluto in Capricorn has the capacity to identify one’s own personal set of ethical principles, and then to be called upon to defend them against all attacks. Pluto is a force of transformation, especially with Saturn in Capricorn. It has to do with power. You have power if you stay true to your personal ethics. It will empower you. But if you allow others to assume power over you, to the point of compromising your principles, they will. And in the process, you will lose who you are.  You could experience a major identity crisis, accompanied by powerful feelings of guilt. This becomes a crisis point in one’s life, and it is particularly crucial to those who have planets located between 18-22° of cardinal signs (Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn). Those born January 9-13, and every 90 days afterwards (April, July, and October) will likely notice the intensity of this time.

Stay clear in your thoughts, and know what you stand for, and then stand for it.

Shorter-term, there is a new moon in Gemini this week. Gemini can be inspired and alert, filled with many new ideas, but challenged to organize these thoughts and remain calm. With Jupiter and Neptune also in mutable signs (Gemini is mutable), this can be a very wild period, for personal emotions as well as market fluctuations.