The broader market once again closed at a record high; bond yields soar

Things you need to know:

• Trade Talk Stalls – Giving investors a reason to take $ off the table
• Asian markets suffer even as Alibaba’s Singles Day hits a record
• We are 1 TWEET away from a surge or a collapse!
• Try the Veal Cacciatore

Bond prices, gold prices, and utility prices are weakening as global investors grow more confident that the economic cycle is not over yet. Even the VIX (fear index) weakened (bullish)…in a vote of confidence that the FED, the administration, and corporate leaders are all singing the same tune. It was all about trade (Trade Headlines that is) as the moves in the market were driven by whatever crossed the tape about trade. It went from “we have a deal” to “we might have a deal” to “we have a deal as long as both sides cancel tariffs on the same day” to “tariffs and concessions will be part of any deal” (Kudlow) to “Tariffs are not part of any deal” (Navarro) to Donny telling us that he hasn’t agreed to anything concerning reducing or eliminating any tariffs.

Now the S&P rose 1 3/4% on the good news (talk that Part One of the trade deal is done). It gave nothing back on the bad news (news that conflicted with what the media/news reports were telling us) when it had every reason to, yet did not. All this means is that investors, besides being tired of the talk, do not believe that the deal won’t happen. They are buying the RISK assets (stocks) and selling off the SAFE assets (treasuries, gold, and utilities) as they prepare for an expected deal and appear to be ignoring the daily noise. 

By the end of the week the Dow gained 1.2%, the S&P added 1.75%, the Nasdaq gained 1.4%, and the Russell gained 2%. 

This week marks the middle of November and with only six weeks left in 2019, we can count the days (30) until the ball drops. Talk of the Santa Claus rally is in high gear as the holiday shopping season gets ready to kick off.

Now remember, this year, the shopping season is short by one week. With Thanksgiving at the end of the month, the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is only four weeks vs. the usual five weeks. Talk of “Black Friday type” sales happening before Black Friday and Cyber Monday should be expected as the retailers look to make the most of the holiday shopping season. That starts today with Big Veteran’s Day Sales.

Speaking of retailers, today (Nov. 11) is also “Singles Day” in China. It is a make-believe holiday started by Alibaba a decade ago. It is a gimmick really, but a gimmick that is expected to “be more gargantuan” than ever before. Last year’s take was $30.8 billion in one day (more than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined) and that was a 27% increase over 2017. At 5:30 pm last evening on the east coast, it was 5:30 am in China and sales had already topped $13 billion and the sun hadn’t even risen yet! Expectations are for absolute craziness to fill the airwaves and by the time I send this out, surely sales will have topped last year’s take. Estimates range as high as $35 billion or a 15% increase over last year. So, let’s see what happens. (Apparently the trade war means nothing to Chinese consumers).

This morning markets around the world are suddenly listening to the Trade War rhetoric! What wasn’t a problem last week, is a problem this morning. Talk of any agreement that includes a rollback of tariffs is being panned as Donny reiterates that he “has not agreed to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods.” New unrest in Hong Kong is causing a new degree of angst. Weak economic data out of China only adds to the nervousness. Expectations of weaker economic data later in the week caused Asian markets to fall.

Japan -0.26%, Hong Kong -2.36%, China – 1.76%, and ASX +0.72%

Markets in Europe are following the action in Asia as trade and geo-political concerns take top billing. Positive economic data (UK Third Quarter GDP grew by 0.3%) means that the Brits have avoided “slipping into a technical recession” after the Second Quarter negative 0.2%. Political unrest in Spain, created by Sunday’s fragmented election results, is sure to cause weeks of new negotiations for acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who is also the Secretary General of the Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE).

FTSE -0.88%, CAC 40 – 0.08%, DAX – 0.34%, EUROSTOXX – 0.27%, SPAIN -0.47%, and ITALY -0.45%.

US futures are suggesting a negative open as investors reconsider the trade war rhetoric. Remember today is Veteran’s day, the banks and bond markets are closed. Trading is expected to be lite as many participants are taking the day off, so moves can be exaggerated.

Dow futures -130 points, S&Ps lower by 13 points, the Nasdaq is giving up 45 points, and the Russell is off by 7 points.  

Economic data this week includes: CPI month/month exp of +0.3%, ex food and energy of +0.2%, PPI month/month – exp of 0.3% , ex food and energy of +0.2%. Fed Chair Powell to speak on Wednesday to the JT Economic Committee in Congress (something to watch) while Minneapolis’s Fed President Neely Khashkari will be giving a speech in Wisconsin (something to avoid). 

All three indexes are at or kissing their 2019 highs. Any pullback today should be considered nothing less than the normal type of digestion after the surge we have seen in the last two weeks. Nothing has really changed. The trade deal, while not done, is expected to be done, no matter what the headlines say.

But remember, we are only “A TWEET AWAY” from the market surging higher or collapsing beneath our feet. So, stay tuned. Surely Trump will have something to say (once all the insiders position themselves correctly). I suspect that any “normal” weakness will take the S&P back to the 3050 level before it finds support.   

Oil prices drop overnight and this morning as the stalling of the trade war talks takes its toll on the demand perception. Oil traded up to resistance on Friday at $57.63 and then backed off. It is currently trading at $56.36.

 

Veal Cacciatore

Veal Cacciatore - literally means veal prepared hunter style (cacciatore). In Italian, the cacciatore is the hunter and the hunter prepared his meals with braised chicken or rabbit (I do not do rabbit so we use veal), garlic, tomatoes, onions, bell peppers, mushrooms, peas seasoned with oregano, basil, wine and S&P. You brown the veal and then cook it in the sauce and serve it over fusilli.  If you make it on a Sunday and let it sit overnight - it is always better the next day…

*** you want veal top round cut into 1-inch cubes…

Start by sautéing crushed garlic in olive oil... add the seasoned veal pieces (S&P). Just brown the veal - no need to cook all the way through as it will cook in the sauce. Once you have browned the meat - remove and place on a platter. Next add sliced onions, and bell peppers - use 2 large onions and 1 green and 1 red bell pepper - if you like the orange/yellow ones then feel free to use that also. Sauté the onion and peppers and until soft - about 10 mins… season with S&P.

Remove from the pot - now add two cans of kitchen ready crushed tomatoes - not puree - just crushed tomatoes. Then add one can of water (and 1 cup of red wine - optional). Season with s&p, oregano, and fresh basil...bring to a boil and then turn heat down to simmer. Add back the veal, onions & peppers. Now (optional) add one can of sliced mushrooms (draining the water first) and one bag of frozen peas. Let simmer for 45 mins - stirring occasionally. At this point it is done - but like I said - the longer it simmers the better it is and if you let it cool and refrigerate until the next day - it is like you died and went to heaven.

When ready - bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil and add the Fusilli (curly spaghetti). cook for 8-10 mins or until al dente. Drain - reserving a mugful of pasta water - and return to pot adding back about 1/4 of a cup of the pasta water to moisten… let it sit for a min and absorb the water...now add 3 or 4 ladles of sauce and toss. Add two handfuls of grated cheese - Locatelli Romano works great - toss again and serve. You can serve with the veal or you can serve the veal on a separate platter in the center of the table. This meal works well with a nice Chianti - remember this is a meal prepared by the hunter - he is a simple man so the wine should reflect his simplicity. Does it get any better?