Ten-Year Treasury Note yield is nearing 3%

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

"Investors eye 3% on the Ten-Year Notes (i.e. 120 area) with concern as it intersects a trendline that has led to crashes/bear markets since 1980," Thomas Lee, founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in a note. "But, as we noted a few weeks ago, interest rates are moving higher from ultra-low levels and like 1950s-1960s, this period saw higher rates [and] higher equity prices." – Fred Imbert, Alexandra Gibbs, “Dow Rises More than 100 Points, But Remains on Track For Weekly Loss,” www.cnbc.com, February 23, 2018.

Last week’s market behavior was typical of the emphasis on both Neptune, the planet, and its ruling sign of Pisces. Both Neptune and Pisces can pertain to uncertainty and passivity. When prominent after a big rally or decline, it can suggest a sideways motion as investors try to figure out: Is it a bull or a bear? In this case, it was a fish (symbol of Pisces) looking to swim in safe waters, and not take too much risk.

Most stock markets of the world ended in their first recovery attempt early last week, February 19-21, after the tumultuous sell off that ended February 9. However, the recovery so far has been tepid, and not strong enough yet to confirm the recent decline has really ended, despite the late surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close up nearly 350 points on Friday. Most of the other world equity markets may just be pausing, which is the whole point of bringing up last week’s cosmic highlight of Neptune and Pisces. Neptune and Pisces prefer to relax and play nice, avoiding stress. Of course, when you pause too long and things begin to happen suddenly, passivity quickly becomes replaced by hysteria and panic.

A few equity markets, however, did perform well all of last week. Brazil’s Bovespa and Russia’s MICEX soared to new all-time highs. I wonder what they have in common? China’s Shanghai and Australia’s ASX indices also rallied smartly all week, closing near their weekly highs. Despite the rally off the February 9 low in most indices, the volume on last week’s rally was very anemic compared to the volume during the selloff, which by itself, is not a favorable sign.

In other markets, the Ten-Year Treasury Note yield is nearing 3%. The T-Note value is finding support around the 120 mark, its lowest level in six years. With Saturn in Capricorn, and the FED being a Capricorn institution, the prospect of furthering tightening is apt to continue for a while, maybe for close to two more years. This would imply that T-Notes will soon break the sacred 120 mark (3% interest-rate ceiling), which many think will tank the stock market. I am not so sure. I think gradually rising rates, even here, is healthy for the future of the economy. Savers will once again start saving and spending, using the new interest rate accruals to start purchasing more goods. I think both banks and corporations will benefit from that, as well as the recent tax reform that was in their favor. I think 4% rates will be more of a real concern, and within two-three years, I can make the case that the 10-year note could rise as high as 6-7%, which could very well tip the financial sector into a funk. And then I think rates will start to come back down, assuming there is still an independent Federal Reserve Bank as we know it today.

Bitcoin offered an interesting study last week, as its rally from 5911 on February 6 (one trading day before our last critical reversal date of February 7) stopped at a high of 11,785 on February 21. That was nearly a 100% gain in just two weeks. By Friday, February 23, it was already back down to 9590. Live Cattle rallied to $1.325/lb, its highest level since June 2017. It already seems like it is relating to the forthcoming entrance of Uranus in Taurus (Taurus is the bull, which is a relative of cattle, and somehow may also be a distant relation to the banker and his bank). Gold and Silver were basically non-events last week, trading in a narrow range, again related to Neptune and Pisces, as they search for a direction.

 

SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS    

The uncertainty and directionless nature of Neptune and Pisces influencing markets last week, will start to give way to the more robust dynamic of Jupiter and its exaggerative qualities between March 1 and March 13. If this is the beginning of a new primary cycle, off the lows of February 9, then this time band may be quite positive for equity markets, as well as some commodity markets, like crude oil, which is ruled by Jupiter and Neptune. Crude oil has been doing quite well since its double bottom low of February 9 and 14 at 58.07 and 58.20/barrel. By Friday, February 23, crude oil was already up as high as 63.73, nearly a 10% gain in less than 10 days.

The Jupiter-heavy period begins with a trine from Venus on March 1. Some spiritually-oriented astrologers consider this as the “Law of Abundance aspect,” a time to visualize what you want via a ritual where you write yourself a check for unlimited abundance (or funds). Of course, it works! If you are worried, please feel free to write the check to me instead of yourself. I will make sure it gets deposited properly (for those who are strong and rigid Saturn types, please know this is meant as a joke).

On March 4, the Neptune phase will wind down with the conjunction between the Sun and Neptune in Pisces.  Jupiter turns retrograde on March 8, which strongly highlights the optimism and exaggeration qualities of Zeus. Finally, on March 13, the Sun will form a favorable trine aspect to Jupiter. That is a major dose of Jupiter, and should be a clue whether the low of February 9 really ended the selloff, or if the next shoe is ready to drop. The big selloff into February 9 was also under a Jupiter-laden period. The difference, however, is that early February was the end of an older cycle, when markets are more prone to be bearish. Heavy Jupiter transits at the end of a cycle can be bearish and lead to a sudden outbreak of panic. However, Jupiter transits are usually more bullish than bearish, especially in the beginning stages of a new cycle. Thus, if February 9 was the end of a cycle, we are now in the younger part of a new cycle when conditions are more bullish. Given that Jupiter is associated with the principle of exaggeration, the market is likely to soar upwards if it is a younger cycle, or collapse once again if this is still the end of an older cycle. That’s why Financial Astrologers need to understand more than astrology when determining how an aspect or other geocosmic factor is going to unfold. It is different, according to the phase of the cycle a market is in. If the cycle is young, Jupiter is bullish. If the cycle is old, Jupiter is more prone to be bearish – and in both cases, it will likely exaggerate the underlying price of the market move.

By the way, President Donald Trump has a very prominent Jupiter in his natal chart. He was born under a Jupiter signature very similar to what will take place March 1-13. That is, he was born when Jupiter was stationary, in a trine aspect to his natal Sun, and the dispositor of his emotional natal Moon, which is in Sagittarius, Jupiter’s ruling sign. In addition to great exaggeration, Jupiter also pertains to great fortune and luck. His progressed Venus is on his natal Jupiter for much of 2018. For him personally, this is a “Law of Abundance Year,” where he accrues great wealth – perhaps the greatest gain in his lifetime. He also has Saturn making a T-square, by transit, to his natal Mercury/Neptune square. It may also be a year in which he encounters the greatest ethical challenges of his life. Mercury/Neptune in hard aspect is always a challenge to get one’s facts correct, while at the same time trying to hold others accountable for their facts. Hence, we have the current case of “fake news.” But who is the fakir? Both parties, I suspect.