Sterling boosted by very rare positive comments from Jean-Claude Juncker

• New Zealand Dollar most affordable since October 2018 

• Beware US Dollar bounce back next week

• Politics a-plenty to move markets

A few words of hope from the EU side about a possible Brexit deal, Sterling continued its upward path overnight. The twin facts that the Bank of England left everything on hold yesterday and UK retail sales were down on the year were largely ignored as embers of a return to certainty were fanned by the politics of the UK’s exit from the EU. I am increasingly confident that, whatever happens on the 31st October, as long as the UK leave the EU with or without a deal, the Pound will strengthen. Uncertainty is the bane of any currency and we have had more than our fair share of GBP uncertainty over the past 3 ½ years. There is a lack of UK data today, but the Brexit train rolls on and pretty much any news will move the Pound. 

 

US Dollar likely to bounce back on Monday 

The US Dollar gained a little after the Federal Reserve cut its base rate but has given up some of those gains in the past 48 hours. The fresh jobless numbers were a tad better than forecast, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index was better than expected – especially the employment aspect of it – and existing home sales data was improved. So the weakness in the US Dollar has to be due to something else.  With no visible reasons for the move, investor and trader selling has to be the culprit. It is a big day for contract finalisation in the Asian financial markets – so called ‘quadruple witching day’ – so closing contracts could have contributed to the USD decline. That would suggest we may see a bounce back on Monday, so beware. 

 

Good news for Australian and New Zealand Dollar buyers

NZD and AUD buyers are getting a boost from the elevated exchange rates against the Pound. The NZD is within a whisker of $2.00 to the Pound (best since October 2018) and the AUD is up around 1.85 (best since May 2019). If that doesn’t put a smile on buyers’ faces, I don’t know what will. 

 

Political market movers a plenty

Today’s data diary is sparse, but it is the last day of the week, so there is likely to be volatility and the big themes are still hovering in the background. US versus China, US versus EU, US versus Iran… can you see the pattern emerging? Developments in any of these areas could be market moving. Speak to the team if you have any concerns or need to transfer money in the coming days.

 

World Cup wonder

And much more importantly than any of the above, the Rugby World Cup starts today in Japan. It is so exciting to report on a World Cup that England has a chance of actually winning. Good luck, gentlemen. Oh, and we have a few Kiwis in the office, so good luck to the All Blacks... not really!