Analysis

Prime Minister to seek conclusive ‘yes or no’ vote on proposed Brexit deal

  • Sterling still riding high in spite of Parliament

  • International Monetary Fund blames US President for many of the woes of the world

Anyone who thought Brexit would be settled by Saturday afternoon was very disappointed. There is a chance Boris Johnson’s deal may be approved today though but the speaker, John Bercow will have to grant the government the motion to vote on the package. Whatever the outcome, the Number 10 team seem set to get the UK out of EU clutches by 31st October. Sterling held up well, taking barely half a backward step, despite the Letwin delay and we start this week with the Pound commanding $1.29 and €1.1560. The Pound is also at the top end of its range against the Australasian currencies and the Canadian Dollar.

 

Canadian election today

Whilst on that subject, the Canadian election is on today and no one seems to know which way that is going to go. This is being billed as the closest election in Canada’s history. Whether the Liberals or Conservatives win, we don’t expect major changes in the value of the Canadian Dollar.

 

International Monetary Fund blames US President for many of the woes of the world

Overnight we heard that Japans exports dropped by 5.2% in September after an 8.2% decline in August. There is no doubt the China v US trade wars have slowed global growth and that is damaging economies beyond just the US and China.  IMF head honcho and soon to be ECB chief Christine Lagarde will not have ingratiated herself with the US President after her comments that Donald Trump is responsible for many of the threats facing the global economy. Of course she is right but I doubt POTUS will see it that way….oh and she’s a woman, so that pretty much seals his view. 

 

This week’s economic releases

The rest of Monday is quiet but, as well as the ongoing Brexit stuff, this week also brings German manufacturing data and their business climate index. We will also see an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. No change is expected from the ECB but the German data is expected to be soft again.

 

We need that too…

And today is National Nurses Day in Thailand. This tradition started in 1990 commemorating the Birth of the Princess Mother. I can’t help thinking we need a National Nurses Day in the UK. Who’s with me?

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