NFPs expectations
|S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity Friday, and for all the anticipated deterioration in unemployment claims, couldn‘t keep the pressure on. Niether semiconductors, nor financials, nor Russell 2000 were enthusiastic, let alone value stocks – industrials and materials were limping too, testifying to the defensives led daily reversal (utilities and consumer staples, followed then by healthcare). Above all, tech had a good day, but the advance-decline line turned barely positive, new highs new lows are lagging, and only advance-decline volume saved the day.
Bottom line, the bear market rally upswing is still suspect, and stocks are overvalued both on E and P/E basis given that no no landing is ahead.
Conversely, today‘s non-farm payrolls can be counted on to prove disappointing to the bulls. Anything above 240K (even with all the adjustments and other statistical tools employed), can‘t be expected, and given the most recent JOLTS, I wouldn‘t be surprised by at best a low 200K figure, or more probably by a data point starting with 1xxK.
And given the finally again „bad is bad“ dynamic, it means that S&P 500 is likely to react to the figure risk-off, with a downswing once trading gets underway again.
Happy (Catholic) Easter holidays if you celebrate & enjoy the long weekend!
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