Gold uptrend offers similar wave-4 pullbacks on two time-frames
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Gold made a strong bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This is probably a wave 4 pullback, which means that more uptrend is still expected.
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The bullish impulse and breakout (blue box) above the 21 ema zone is strong. A retest of the previous top is likely (first green arrow).
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On the 4 hour chart, price action seems to be developing a strong bullish impulse. This is probably a wave 3 (grey) of a wave 3 (pink)
Price charts and technical analysis
The XAU/USD seems to have completed a strong bullish impulse, which has been labeled a wave 3 (purple). An ABC pattern (pink) took price back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which acted as a support zone. Price action broke above the 21 ema zone and resistance trend line (dotted orange) as well. Let’s analyze what to expect next:
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The bullish impulse and breakout (blue box) above the 21 ema zone is strong. A retest of the previous top is likely (first green arrow).
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A sideways bull flag pattern (orange arrows) could indicate that the uptrend is dominant (second green arrow).
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A strong bearish bounce (dotted orange arrow) indicates that the wave 4 (purple) pullback will expand into a larger and more complex ABC pattern.
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The previous bottom should still act as support (dotted blue arrow).
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The main targets are the -27.2% and -61.8% Fibonacci levels at $2319 and 2634. Round levels like $2250 and $ 2500 are also targets.
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A break below the 50% Fib places this Elliott Wave outlook on hold (orange circle) and a deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).
On the 4 hour chart, price action seems to be developing a strong bullish impulse. This is probably a wave 3 (grey) of a wave 3 (pink):
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The pullback respected the 38.2% Fibonacci as well, which is probably a wave 4 (orange).
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A bearish ABC (green) pattern is expected to develop within wave 4 (orange).
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A bullish bounce is expected at support (blue arrows).
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A bull flag pattern (grey arrows) could indicate an immediate uptrend (green arrow).
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A break below the 50% Fib places this Elliott Wave outlook on hold (orange circle) and a deep retracement invalidate it (red circle).
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The main targets are the Fibonacci targets at $1960, $2016, $2078, $ 2179, and $2234 for the wave 3 (grey).
The analysis has been done with the ecs.SWAT method and ebook.
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