Gold stable on mixed US data and dovish Fed outlook
|Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady after a recent high, supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar, dovish Fed expectations, and ongoing global tensions. In recent data releases, mixed U.S. economic figures have kept rate cut hopes intact, with durable goods orders softening and jobless claims falling. At the same time, discussions between Russia and Ukraine have eased market tension, yet gold holds firm. This environment continues to support demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold holds firm on mixed US data, weaker Dollar, and global tensions
Gold is stabilizing after hitting a recent high, with momentum still intact. Markets continue to anticipate a U.S. rate cut in December. Although some economic indicators show strength, the broader trend points to moderating inflation and softening demand. Durable goods orders rose by 0.5% in September, exceeding expectations but falling sharply from the 3.0% surge in August. This mixed result highlights underlying fragility in manufacturing momentum. At the same time, orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%, suggesting narrow sectoral strength, while defense-related orders showed a slowdown.
Meanwhile, the labour market offered a temporary offset to broader easing expectations. Specifically, jobless claims dropped to 216,000, hitting a seven-month low and indicating continued strength in the labour market. However, this strength has not shifted the market’s outlook. Expectations for policy easing remain firmly in place. The U.S. Dollar continues to face pressure as investors position for rate cuts potentially starting in December.
At the same time, geopolitical developments are also influencing market sentiment. Remarks from U.S. and Russian officials have raised hopes for progress in Ukraine peace talks. The Kremlin indicated that a resolution remains far off, while President Trump expressed confidence that an agreement could soon be reached. This has supported a mild shift toward risk assets, drawing some flows away from gold and into equities. Still, ongoing uncertainty is keeping demand for safe-haven assets intact, especially with the Fed’s dovish stance and a weaker U.S. Dollar.
Gold forms bullish triangle patterns within ascending broadening wedge
The gold chart below shows a well-defined ascending broadening wedge, with price respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the pattern. Inside this structure, gold has consistently developed symmetrical triangle formations, each serving as a consolidation zone before upward continuation. The most recent triangle now appears to be tightening, indicating the potential for another breakout to the upside.
A new symmetrical triangle has developed near the $4,000 zone. Price is coiling within the pattern, showing signs of consolidation before a potential directional move. Previous triangles preceded powerful rallies, and the current setup mirrors that behavior. Gold continues to hold within the rising wedge, signaling sustained bullish momentum. If the pattern holds, gold could soon resume its upward move within the broader wedge.
Moreover, the repeated formation of this pattern highlights gold’s strong bullish structure. The current symmetrical triangle appears to lay the groundwork for another breakout, supported by strong buying interest and favorable macro conditions. With price consolidating near elevated levels, the setup resembles a continuation pattern rather than a reversal. A confirmed breakout above the triangle could pave the way for new record highs, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves forward with rate cuts in December.
Gold outlook: Dovish Fed signals and bullish patterns support further upside
Gold remains well-positioned for further gains as macro conditions and technical patterns continue to align. The combination of a weakening U.S. Dollar, persistent Fed rate cut expectations, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supports sustained demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, gold’s consolidation within a tightening symmetrical triangle inside a broader rising wedge signals potential for another breakout. If the Fed follows through with policy easing in December, this setup could drive gold toward new record highs.
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