Gold and silver recovery continues, but equities sink as tech is shunned
|- Iran tensions resurface once more and boost oil price
- Tech stocks defy earnings strength
- Palantir bucks the trend
- Value over growth
- Backdrop not Nasdaq friendly
- New Disney CEO fails to boost share price
The risk recovery is on pause as we move through Tuesday. After signs that a recovery in precious metals could boost overall risk appetite earlier today, a nasty sell off in tech stocks has pushed the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 down by 1.7% and 1.1% respectively. The biggest drag is the tech sector, which is down 2.7% overall.
Iran tensions resurface once more and boost oil price
Sentiment towards equities has soured today due to two factors: firstly, renewed tensions between Iran and the US, after the US shot down an Iranian drone near one of its aircraft carriers. Secondly, the selloff in bitcoin on Tuesday has hit risk sentiment more broadly. The main crypto currency is testing the lows from April. Equities have not joined in the recovery rally in precious metals, and gold, silver and oil are all higher today. This is a sign that in the short term, growth stocks are getting sold off in favour of hard assets like commodities.
We are reluctant to see this sell off in stocks as the start of a serious downtrend. For example, the Vix index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, remains stable around 18.8, about the average level of the last 12 months. Added to this, a 1.7% decline is not a rout. Instead, it could be a short-term correction, after stocks neared record levels. Added to this, the sell off in mega cap tech stocks can have a big impact on US indices, even as other parts of the market are rallying.
Tech stocks defy earnings strength
So far, the trend of underperformance in US equities compared to Europe and Asia is persisting. This comes even though it’s been a decent earnings season so far. Out of the near 200 companies that have reported so far, they have delivered an average positive surprise of 9% above estimates, and an average sales surprise of 1.4%. Industrials, tech and communication have been the largest contributors to earnings growth so far this earnings season. However, this has not stopped tech from selling off.
Palantir bucks the trend
One tech stock that is bucking the trend today is Palantir, which is rallying by more than 7% after Monday’s earnings report. The stock has erased last week’s losses but still has some way to go to move into the green for 2026, it is still 12% lower YTD.
Value over growth
AMD is the earnings highlight this evening, and its stock is sinking as we wait for its earnings update. The stock price is lower by 2% so far today, reversing a 2% gain in the pre-market. AMD is not unique, the Philadelphia semiconductor index is the weakest US index so far today and is lower by 3.4%. This compares with gains for the gold and silver index, telecoms, the Dow Transport index and utilities. There is a clear preference for value stocks over growth stocks right now, and interestingly, the rally in the Dow Transport index is a sign that investors are not worried about the US growth outlook.
Backdrop not Nasdaq friendly
Low volatility, dividend payers, and value are the main factors driving US stocks this week, as a lack of momentum could keep US stocks subdued. These factors are not Nasdaq friendly, and the US main tech index is lower by 0.6% YTD, after today’s sell off eroded all YTD gains.
If AMD, Alphabet and Amazon can deliver on the earnings front this week, then they could be spared any sell off. However, the rotation to other regions and sectors of the US market is clear. US tech stocks may be cheap, but they are not cheap enough.
New Disney CEO fails to boost share price
Disney’s shares have given back earlier gains, after rallying 1% in the pre-market after Josh D’Amaro, the head of parks, was announced as Bob Iger’s successor. It’s been a rough start to 2026 for Disney as earnings disappointed, and the stock has fallen 8% year to date. D’Amaro will have his work cut out for him to boost the share price as he takes the reigns from veteran Iger.
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