GDP data is by far the hardest information to obtain
|Current GDP at 3.4 vs Inflation 3.5. GDP and Inflation are the exact same averages except both move in opposite directions but never by much. At the 2 year average, GDP and Inflation Correlate at -67%. The 2 year average covers the period from 2024 to 2022. The same -67% is seen from the period 2023 to 2022.
On a wider scale to cover yearly averages from 2024 to 2010, GBP and Inflation Correlate at +23%. The 14-year Inflation average is 2.62 and is matched by GDP at 2.27.
The widest distance to Inflation Vs GDP in 14 years was seen in 2022 at 6.1%. To include 6.1% then the average distance to Inflation Vs GDP is 1.52%. To exclude 6.1% then the average distance is 1.17%.
GDP is forecasted at 2% from 2024 to 2030 then the drop to 1.0%. Inflation is forecast at 2%. GDP vs Inflation trades at dead ends and going nowhere. The Economy of the United States is going nowhere.
Then we arrive at the concept of Current dollars in relation to GDP to answer the question how much money was added or subtracted from the economy based on the GDP release. Per quarter we're dealing with about $300 billion by a 5.1% increase in Q2023. The top rate at the 93 year average is 6.27%. Growth in GDP per Dollars is a paltry high at $300 billion.
GDP data is by far the hardest information to obtain. The BEA doesn't want the public to know. Same as BOJ interest rates and trade data. Today's release wil reveal nothing unless longer term GDP data is known. We will hear analysis upon analysis but its faulty analysis. The BEA hides the necessary data by pretty charts and graphs.
Now we have Powell, the Joe Biden of Finance. The real question for Powell is how bad will the recession hit or are we going to something much worse.
Next week
Targets
EUR/USD 1.0734 traded highs 1.0728, AUD/USD 0.6495 completed, GBP/USD 1.2522, highs 1.2522. Perfect and complete. NZD/USD target 0.5981, highs 0.5963.
How many pips this week, 400, 500?
EUR/USD Next big break 1.0753 then 1.0800's easily.
USD/JPY why should the BOJ intervene. USD/JPY's problem is DXY at 106.00's and 105.00's as USD/JPY and DXY are the exact same currency. Trade for the BOJ is going very well.
DXY 103.66 = USD/JPY lows.
USD/JPY targets 154.20 then 153.57.
GBP/JPY targets 192.62 easily, EUR/JPY 165.02 also easily, CAD/JPY 112.55, AUD/JPY 99.93, NZD/JPY 91.60.
GBP/USD higher or lower at 1.2534. Lows are located at 1.2428 to reload long.
AUD/USD top at 0.6553. Break at 0.6507 for lower targets.
NZD/USD Bottoms at 0.5922.
CAD/ZAR 13.8894 break = DXY 103.66 and USD/JPY 154.00's and 153.00's.
GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD trade deeply oversold and target 1.9240 for GBP/AUD and 1.6520 or EUR/AUD.
GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD remains neutral and the same position as this week.
GBPCAD and EUR/CAD shorts for next week.
CHF cross pairs all trade deeply overbought and matches overbought USD/CHF.
Watch USD/CAD 1.3631. Overall, shorts for next week.
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