GBP/USD gains steam above four‑month high near 1.3650
|- GBP/USD extends rally above key SMAs.
- Positive view intact; eyes 9‑month high near 1.3725.
- But further consolidation cannot be ruled out as RSI flatlines.
GBP/USD is strengthening above the four‑month high of 1.3650, its highest level since September 17, after briefly rising above 1.3712 in the previous session. This extends a four‑day rebound from the 200‑day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3400 that began last week.
The positive outlook remains intact with the pair holding well above the long‑term ascending trendline, while the MACD is increasing above both the zero level and its red signal line. Meanwhile, the price continues to trade outside the upper Bollinger band, and the bands are widening – a signal that favours continued high momentum rather than an immediate reversal. That said, the RSI is flatlining around the 70 overbought threshold, suggesting that a sideways consolidation cannot be ruled out.
The first support to watch below the upper Bollinger band is 1.3650, followed by 1.3540, and then the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3788-1.3000 downtrend at 1.3490. This region sits just above the mid‑Bollinger band and precedes the 200‑day SMA near 1.3400. A sustained move lower could expose the 50‑day SMA on the way to 1.3350, with additional weakness potentially targeting the 1.3330 support zone, where the lower band and the ascending trendline.
Conversely, resistance stands at the nine‑month high of 1.3725, followed by levels last seen in 2021 – starting with the four‑year high near 1.3788 and then the 1.3800 round figure.
Overall, GBPUSD maintains a firm bullish bias, marking a strong January performance. However, the elevated price action following the Bollinger band breakout carries some risk of a pullback or consolidation within the 1.3650-1.3725 region in the near term.
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