Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast: Likely to defend YTD lows ahead of BoE’s Super Thursday

The GBP/USD pair remained under some intense selling pressure on Tuesday and continues to be weighed down by Brexit negotiation impasse. Adding to this, a strong follow-through US Dollar buying, supported by the US President Donald Trump's comments over a possible trade deal with China, further collaborated towards aggravating the selling pressure. 

The downward momentum accelerated during the US trading session and dragged the pair momentarily below the 1.2700 handle and back closer to YTD lows, set in mid-August. The bearish pressure now seems to have abated, at least for the time being, with the pair holding steady above the 1.2700 handle through the Asian session on Wednesday. 

In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the UK, any incoming Brexit-related news/development might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the British Pound. Later during the early North-American session, the US private sector employment details - ADP report, will influence the USD price dynamics and assist traders to grab some short-term opportunities.

From a technical perspective, near-term oversold conditions on daily/4-hourly chart warrant some consolidation ahead of the BoE's Super Thursday. Hence, the pair seems more likely to defend YTD lows support, around the 1.2665-60 region, at least for the time being, which if broken decisively should pave the way for an extension of the well-established bearish trend.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery moves might now confront immediate resistance near the 1.2765-70 region, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.2800 handle before eventually aiming to retest the 1.2840-50 supply zone.

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